So S&P has downgraded a gaggle of European countries' sovereign debt ratings. What a surprise. Ratings agencies are not always the last to know, but they are always and everywhere a tad slow.

There is a reason I call this Ten Seconds Into The Future. The chances of getting a forecast right on the economy are probably 50-60% if you’re good. The chances of translating that into a call on market direction are probably 45-55% if you’re good. So whenever I express an opinion, I’m setting myself up to be wrong. But everyone needs a hobby. So for 2012, here goes.

For the first time in its history the ECB is extending 3 year collateralized funding at 1% to European banks.

Stuff that’s least expected to happen:

There is no economic rationale for Europe having a common currency. The USD works in the US because there is a common treasury on top of the state governments and Federal taxes and benefits unite the US. Also, labor mobility is high, and the national identity is at least as strong as the state or regional identity.

I first looked for an export led recovery in the US in June in my article Investment Strategy: The New Macro. It was my view at the time that the US economy had been in recession for the last 12 months, despite a 2 year long liquidity and emerging market driven bull market in the S&P500, and that no recovery had yet taken place, at least in real terms. My base scenario was that the US was becoming an export economy.

The problems in Europe lie in plain sight. It is likely that the ECB will eventually print money to monetize European sovereign debt, albeit at the eleventh hour, on the eve of some pan European bank threatening not to open for business one winter’s morning. The debt problems in the US are also pretty evident. Every US Treasury is now a PIK.  India's rupee has recently been sold down as public finances deteriorate. For real trouble one has to look at China.

Banks trade on confidence and reputation, not financial strength. Put aside for the moment the complicated and confusing Basel rules and let’s apply some common sense. Put aside definitions of risk weighted assets and Tier 1 or Tier 2 capital. Look at a bank as a business.

A sovereign issuer never has to default on debt denominated in its own currency. This is only true if the sovereign issuer has the ability to print money.

Merger Arbitrage (sometimes referred to as Risk Arbitrage) is a strategy that invests in the securities of companies that are party to a merger or takeover transaction.

As a unifying currency the Euro has been pretty divisive. The comprehensive plan that Sarkozy and Merkel devised only a couple of weeks ago has fallen apart.

A financial crisis in the Eurozone has been postponed due to the efforts of a gaggle of politicians overcoming the urge to assault one another and instead come up with an incredible plan to stave of immediate default by Greece and potential default by peripheral Europe.

I've been in Asia for a year now and I still don't get the double handed business card pass. When an Asian does business in the UK, I don't see them in bowler hats and tails with a James Smith cane or umbrella.

I used to think that banks were a place which kept my money safe. And that they made money lending money out to people who wanted to borrow.

China’s economy posted a rather frenetic 9.1% GDP growth for the third quarter of 2011, short of analysts’ expectations for an annual growth rate of 9.3% and slower than the 9.5% registered in the second quarter.