Hello. I’m Burnham Banks and I studied economics in the late 80s and early 90s. I’m still studying economics today and am still no wiser. This blog is a journal, a record of my thoughts and experiences. If we are destined to repeat our mistakes, we should at least repeat them faithfully. If not, then perhaps the past is a mischievous guide and we should try something new.
Artificial Intelligence May Be Upon Us
Sunday, 16 February 2020 | 7:23 pm
Note. This is an incompletely developed train of thought. The path to artificial (general) intelligence will involve the entire human race. The achievement of AGI could be as mysterious as the distinction between the brain and mind. When AGI is attained it will be the sum of all of us, participating in its evolution and
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Energy.
Wednesday, 22 January 2020 | 12:35 pm
With the current focus on climate change and resource sustainability its interesting to think more deeply about the sources and uses of energy on earth. Fossil fuels. Fossil fuels represent 85% of global energy generation. General opinion is shifting towards the view that fossil fuels are unsustainable because, a) there is a finite endowment which
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ESG Investing Is Hard To Do.
Thursday, 16 January 2020 | 2:50 pm
I had discussed ESG in this previous article entitled: ESG: Externalities Unpriced, in an attempt to encourage a more rigorous analysis of ESG, arguing that ESG leads to better investment results due to a more comprehensive understanding of the factors surrounding a business so that these factors can be integrated into both risk mitigation as
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2020 Investment Strategy. Generally Cautious.
Tuesday, 14 January 2020 | 7:41 am
Reduce equity exposure. Equity markets have outpaced fundamentals recently. In any reversion to mean, equities will perform in line with fundamentals which suggests a much more moderate performance in 2020. On that basis alone, investors should reduce equity exposure. By how much? In a balanced portfolio with 35% in equities and 65% in fixed income,
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Gold. Political Risk Hedge. The Schadenfreude Trade.
Friday, 10 January 2020 | 7:42 am
The case for gold has never been stronger with the rise in geopolitical risk since 2016. Since 2000, the price of gold has risen sharply, at an annualized rate of nearly 14%, only to peak in 2012 before losing 40% in 3 years for an annualized rate of -7.4%. Since then it has risen erratically
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