2022 was the first time since 1969 that equities and bonds fell in unison in a calendar year. The proximate cause of the declines was rising interest rates as central banks tightened financial conditions to rein in higher inflation. Rising interest rates affect both profitability and asset valuations via higher discount rates applied to future

There once was a fool who prized being right above being rich. He placed his bets to hedge the pain he might suffer for his failings and, fool that he was, was more often right than wrong, and therefore succeeded in being more right than rich.  

I’ve written about this elsewhere, always part of a wider survey of inflation and rates, but I really need to record this in one place now as it may be important later. The Gibson Paradox observes that rates and inflation seem to be positively related more than can be explained by lag effects. I therefore

Current Observations: On the positive side of the ledger: Economic growth is still strong. Household & bank balance sheets are strong. Corporate balance sheets are fairly strong. Fiscal policy is still fairly expansionary. Green capex momentum is strong. Equities are fairly valued. On the negative side: Inflation is persistent. Central banks are tightening. Governments are

I was trawling around London soliciting views mostly from the main beneficiaries of the Chancellor’s tax cuts announced 23 September. How? Why? What? The problem with the budget is not that it doesn’t make sense, we can make anything sensible given enough experts’ opinions. The problem was marketing, communications, governance, those sorts of inconveniences. A