Hello. I’m Burnham Banks and I studied economics in the late 80s and early 90s. I’m still studying economics today and am still no wiser. This blog is a journal, a record of my thoughts and experiences. If we are destined to repeat our mistakes, we should at least repeat them faithfully. If not, then perhaps the past is a mischievous guide and we should try something new.

Leveraged Loans. Time to Start Buying. In Stages.

Leveraged loans have been one of the best investments in the last decade, on a risk adjusted basis. Using the S&P LSTA Index as a gauge, the 10 year annualized return has been 8.9% with a volatility of less than 1%. The high yield bond market, proxied by the iBoxx HY index has returned 9.6%
Read more
No Comments

The Bad Case Scenario. How Markets and the Economy Could Suffer.

Just to be clear, this is not my base (highest probability) case but market volatility is at the point where it is useful to consider what could go wrong, what if we are wrong about our base case, and how far could reality be from our expectations. To reiterate, the global economy is actually in
Read more
No Comments

What To Expect In Markets And The Economy in 2019. Q&A With Burnham Banks.

  We began 2018 with expectations of synchronized expansion and then things slowed down almost everywhere. How do you see the economy progressing? Trade is an interesting area since the American President decided to turn a Cold War into a shooting one. Global trade, as a percentage of GDP, had peaked in 2008 and has
Read more
No Comments

Is It Time To Buy China? Worry About the US.

Markets were badly shaken again this week. The trading was interrupted by a US holiday as the nation paid its respects to the late President George HW Bush. The stock rally that was triggered by an apparent change of pace of the Fed, and a temporary ceasefire on the trade front at the G20 meeting,
Read more
No Comments

ESG: Externalities Unpriced

ESG is gaining awareness among investors. To date there are some 120 ESG ETFs with 11 billion USD of assets under management. SRI investing is expanding and currently totals 12 trillion USD in assets. Why might ESG investing be important and useful from an investment perspective, that is discounting the social, ecological and governance aspects
Read more
No Comments