Hello. I’m Burnham Banks and I studied economics in the late 80s and early 90s. I’m still studying economics today and am still no wiser. This blog is a journal, a record of my thoughts and experiences. If we are destined to repeat our mistakes, we should at least repeat them faithfully. If not, then perhaps the past is a mischievous guide and we should try something new.

The Outlook Under The Shadow of COVID 19

The Outlook Under The Shadow of COVID 19 7 Apr 2020   How is 2020 different from 2008? 2008 was a US housing crisis distributed globally by the banking system. US housing was overvalued and over leveraged. The mortgages they supported had weak underwriting and credit standards. Banks from Europe and Asia had entered the
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COVID19 Investment Strategy Response. General non Specific.

Even assuming one had lots of cash to invest, its not easy. Liquid markets like equities and bonds are volatile and sentiment driven. There may be a quick recovery or another leg to the crisis. A more tractable approach is to seek structural instabilities. We seek opportunities in the shadow banking system, especially those parts
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COVID 19, Contagion, Economic Consequences and Risks. 2020 03.

Contagion At the time of writing, the COVID 19 pandemic is well underway. At the end of January, there were almost 12 thousand cases, mostly in China. Now, just two months later, there are over 150 thousand cases, with the highest growth rates outside China. After China, Europe has become the new focus of contagion.
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COVID 19 and Recession. Mitigating The Economic Cost.

It is becoming evident that if not the virus, the response to it, will cause recession. Fighting the virus is the responsibility of health authorities, not central banks and treasuries. Treasuries can help financially of course. Central banks and treasuries should concentrate on mitigating the economic costs of the virus and our containment measures. There
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Update on Economic and Market Outlook. COVID 19.

In mid-January we noted the following: Valuations were high. Equity multiples were high, credit spreads were tight and real estate cap rates were low. Whatever it was an investor considered buying, large numbers of investors had already bid prices up and were squatting on large quantities of inventory. Economic growth was slowing. The global trade
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