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Written by Bryan Goh
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Friday, 09 July 2010 02:21 |
Most hedge fund managers waited too long when the markets corrected sharply in May, preferring to stay long of the market. As European sovereign default risk rose in the eyes of the media and investors, investors began to revise their views. |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Wednesday, 07 July 2010 14:43 |
Governments are torn between fiscal austerity and stimulating economic growth. Since credit driven growth ceased in 2008 private sector economic growth has been muted. |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Tuesday, 22 June 2010 07:05 |
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On Saturday, 19 June, China signalled the end of its currency peg which fixed the CNY at 6.83 to the USD and said it would gradually make the its currency more flexible. The CNY appreciated to 6.80 on Monday. |
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Last Updated on Tuesday, 22 June 2010 18:55 |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Tuesday, 01 June 2010 16:43 |
With the acceleration of globalization in the last 20 years up until 2008 sector risk has risen relative to country risk. |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Thursday, 27 May 2010 16:35 |
In a simple world, we eat what we kill today, we consumer what we produce today. |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Monday, 17 May 2010 13:24 |
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The role of ratings agencies has been placed under intense scrutiny in the wake of the 2008 credit crisis. |
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Last Updated on Monday, 17 May 2010 13:25 |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Tuesday, 11 May 2010 12:54 |
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What are UCITS? |
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Last Updated on Tuesday, 11 May 2010 16:49 |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Saturday, 24 April 2010 08:00 |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Monday, 05 April 2010 07:28 |
Darling's budget is not only a mistake from an economic point of view, it is a strategic mistake politically. |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Monday, 29 March 2010 03:10 |
Imagine you ran a business in an industry that is mildly competitive but not overly so. Your balance sheet is stretched, your debt service is stretched and your bond spreads have widened. |
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Last Updated on Monday, 29 March 2010 03:12 |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Monday, 15 March 2010 17:06 |
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Capitalism is bad at fiscal policy. Capitalism is also bad at monetary policy but that’s less apparent. You cannot hear a loud hum but you can hear a small bang. |
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Last Updated on Monday, 22 March 2010 08:07 |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Friday, 05 March 2010 11:08 |
Its not fundamentals that are driving equity markets and responsible for the current weakness. Fundamentals were bound to weaken once the first round of inventory restocking had taken place and the benefits of cost cutting had been realized. |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Friday, 05 March 2010 11:00 |
Having attended various lectures by academics, regulators, central bankers and investors in the opening weeks of 2010, and being surprised at the diversity of views among the experts, I thought to look back at the 2008 credit crisis in a bit more detail to see what I missed. I tried to look back at the events from first principles and to avoid any biases I might have as a member of the alternatives investment industry. |
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Last Updated on Friday, 05 March 2010 11:03 |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Tuesday, 23 February 2010 08:04 |
- The US owes China 1 trillion bucks. Is it any surprise that China wants a stronger USD?
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Written by Marks@Tiburon
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Monday, 15 February 2010 08:11 |
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For a week in late 2009 we all became experts on the Middle East as Dubai’s finances imploded (hands up all those who had to look up the other five emirates apart from Abu Dhabi and Dubai). |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Friday, 09 July 2010 02:16 |
As Europe’s banks undergo so-called stress tests, an old adage comes to mind. Every failed trade becomes an investment. Every failed investment becomes a strategic holding. |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Tuesday, 06 July 2010 05:02 |
In economic policy there is a difference of view between the US and the rest of the world. As Japan’s largest trading partner the US is especially empathic to the deflation scenario that has plagued Japan since 1990. Therefore, US monetary policy is likely to err on the side of being too loose rather than vigilant on inflation. |
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Last Updated on Wednesday, 07 July 2010 11:08 |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Tuesday, 01 June 2010 16:48 |
We are not rewarded to bolster the base of the pyramid but to reach for the stars. |
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Last Updated on Tuesday, 01 June 2010 18:21 |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Thursday, 27 May 2010 16:38 |
Prior to the adoption of the EUR, European equity markets were segmented by country. |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Tuesday, 25 May 2010 10:37 |
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20% of Nestles business is Europe, 30% in the US, the rest are in emerging markets. |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Friday, 14 May 2010 13:49 |
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Recent history has reinforced the fact that it is very hard to time hedge fund strategies. |
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Last Updated on Friday, 14 May 2010 13:56 |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Monday, 10 May 2010 14:58 |
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Market volatility tends to fade and spike over time. Sharp corrections in financial markets occur more frequently than predicted by statistical theory. How do we explain these phenomena? |
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Last Updated on Monday, 10 May 2010 15:07 |
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Written by Marks@Tiburon
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Thursday, 15 April 2010 00:00 |
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Yesterday the MAS in Singapore announced a re-centring of their FX basket and a bias towards a strong currency to counter inflationary pressure. Brazil has a CPI running over 5%, while India’s WPI is near 10% - as is Russia’s. |
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Last Updated on Sunday, 06 June 2010 09:14 |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Monday, 29 March 2010 03:13 |
How Not To Invest In Hedge Funds: |
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Last Updated on Monday, 29 March 2010 12:53 |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Wednesday, 24 March 2010 12:36 |
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Investing is not for the faint of heart. Neither is it for the psychotic risk taker. Investing requires balance, rationality and a good deal of detached and independent thinking. So don’t listen to me. Figure it out for yourselves. Here are a few common declarations by investors and a few (loaded) questions they should ask. |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Wednesday, 10 March 2010 16:35 |
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The credit quality of sovereign debt is the subject of current scrutiny and debate. The business of government is a complex one with multiple objectives and indeed philosophies. Some believe that governments are inherently inefficient and therefore should have their mandate clearly defined and limited. Others see government as an arbiter that corrects market imperfections. |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Friday, 05 March 2010 11:04 |
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Debt levels as a percentage of GDP: |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Tuesday, 23 February 2010 08:07 |
The equity markets have been weak on the sovereign risk scares in Greece, Spain and Portugal. As much as this, employment numbers in the US have now come in below forecast in the last 4 weeks. |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Tuesday, 23 February 2010 08:01 |
There is an opportunity here to eschew heavy handed regulation. |
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Written by Bryan Goh
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Monday, 15 February 2010 08:07 |
In the latter part of 2008, the value of world trade plummeted as availability of trade finance evaporated at the same time that global economic growth slowed drastically. |
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Featured Articles
Post Mortem: At the beginning of 2009 I wrote down my investment expectations and outlook. Why I do that at the beginning of the year I don’t know. It’s just an arbitrary point in time. Be that as it may, I am hereby repeating that irrationality by coming up with my expectations for 2010. |
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2009 was an interesting year in a different way that 2008 was an interesting year. In 2008 we thought that financial markets would disintegrate. In 2009, equities rallied, credit spreads tightened, the TED spread and LIBOR tightened while commodities recovered and emerging market sovereign bonds saw robust demand. Low risk developed world government bonds fared less well. |
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The blogs, articles and content presented on www.hedged.biz are written by industry professionals who are currently active in the investment industry. By viewing or participating in discussion on this site, you understand that the opinions expressed within do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of their respective professional institutions, but are the opinions of the individual authors and individual participants.
Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Before investing, consider your investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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