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Where, When and How Does Quantitative Easing End? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 21 August 2012 12:38

What's all this talk of QE3? The private commercial banks have been big buyers of US treasuries to the extent that they are operating QE3 on behalf of the Fed. Buying has accelerated from 63 billion usd in 2011 to 136 billion usd YTD 2012. The Fed is already the largest lender to the US treasury, ahead of the PBOC.

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This Protectionist, Mercantilist, Non-Cooperative Landscape. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 20 August 2012 02:53

You can't have your cake and eat it. The economy is a complex system and like most systems it has a number of variables or parameters. Some of these you can control. Others are the consequence of what you control. It isn't always possible to choose all the controls and consequences.

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ESM = Hedge Fund. ECB = Its Prime Broker. Will the ESM be UCITS? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Saturday, 04 August 2012 01:13

 

The world's major central banks need to buy the debt issued by their governments. This is not just to boost the economy by increasing money supply. It is mostly because no one else will buy their junk bonds.

Last Updated on Saturday, 04 August 2012 01:17
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A Strategy For Erratic Markets: Event Driven and Pentwater Capital. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 23 July 2012 23:38

In these treacherous times the degree of macro risk in markets is substantial and it is tempting to try to capture these opportunities. The confident macro trader will certainly argue for the opportunity while the fundamental investor may be confounded by factors beyond their considerations. One of the more controlled ways of investing in the current environment is event driven strategies.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 01 August 2012 00:27
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The LIBOR Fixing. Its Not Just Banks. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 06 July 2012 00:46

"The truth? You can't handle the truth." Col. Nathan Jessep (Jack Nicholson), A Few Good Men.

Last Updated on Monday, 23 July 2012 23:38
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Consumption, Income, Wealth and Happiness PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 27 June 2012 00:35

Consumption is the most important driver of economic growth, but consumption has to be in large part funded from current income, and to the extent that it is funded from borrowing, and thus future income, the ability to repay needs to be considered in the context of risk to future income.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 27 June 2012 00:37
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Operation Twist 2: Pushing On A String PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 21 June 2012 00:54

The US economy is quite evidently slowing again and the Fed in its wisdom has decided to extend Operation Twist, that is buying longer dated treasuries and funding that with the sale of shorter dated debt. This is like someone saying he's got to water the lawn just after Hurricane Katrina.

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A Solution To The Euro Zone Crisis PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 14 June 2012 03:57

The problem of fiscal union in the Eurozone is not as intractable as many think. There is an elegant solution. Actually, let me retract that, there is a chaotic, potentially contentious, precipitous, union breaking, gut wrenching solution. Which is quite nice.

Last Updated on Thursday, 21 June 2012 23:38
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Euro: Why The Euro Should Be Broken Up PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 14 June 2012 00:20

Forget about fiscal union. If you cannot get convergence in the productivity of all factors of production, that includes not just labour but land and capital as well, you will not have convergence in the reward to factors, and thus convergence in factor prices.

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Raising Capital. Capital Raising for Hedge Funds and Private Equity in Asia. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Hedge Fund Marketer   
Sunday, 03 June 2012 02:59

Capital Raising in Asia. Raising Capital for Hedge Funds. Raising Capital for Private Equity.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 05 June 2012 14:38
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Complex Organizations. Some Management Theory. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Saturday, 02 June 2012 08:17

When the troops fail the general, its not always clear who's to blame. But when different divisions fail each other, the blame is crystal clear. Generals are to blame.

Last Updated on Saturday, 02 June 2012 08:21
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10 Secs Into The Future. Investment Strategy For a Broken World 2012 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 18 May 2012 01:05

Its one of those periods again when markets are falling and people are feeling down. And when they feel down, they sell assets and markets fall, and they feel even more down.

Last Updated on Friday, 01 June 2012 22:32
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Euro crisis update. Will the Euro break up? The Fiction of Banks and Sovereigns. And China. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 14 May 2012 00:13

A few months ago the ECB's long term loans to the banking system appeared to have staved off risk of default or breakup for at least as long a term as the facility. The fears of default and breakup have returned with a vengeance.

Last Updated on Monday, 14 May 2012 00:34
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Singapore Wage Price Inflation Spiral PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 09 May 2012 00:10

Take a small island with an open economy highly dependent on trade and intellectual property, grow the economy to the hilt, run out of ideas, grow the population to grow the economy, to the hilt, or the shoreline, and what do you find? High inflation at each level of economic output.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 09 May 2012 00:12
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European Distressed Assets? What European Distressed Assets? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 02 May 2012 05:23

A substantial volume of capital has been raised by various asset managers to capitalize on the imminent or eventual fire sale of distressed assets by European banks and financial institutions. Its going to be a long wait.

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Investing In Funds PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 21 August 2012 00:08

My wife just showed me her mutual fund statements and reports which she received from the manager. After 15 years, this much vaunted fund manager had generated a nominal return of... zero.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 28 August 2012 22:17
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Economic Growth to Slow, Equities at Risk PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 08 August 2012 06:07

Equities continue to rise or at the very least are resilient in the face of good and bad news., Sovereign bond yields head for zero. Meanwhile economic data seem to indicate a synchronized global slowdown. What gives?

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Interest rates, equities, bonds and FX. Yield Droughts and Yield Junkies. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 25 July 2012 02:36

Interest rates will stay low for a long time. The implications for higher interest rates are sufficiently dire that policy has no choice but to ensure low rates across the major currency curves for the foreseeable future. OK, longer than that.

Last Updated on Saturday, 04 August 2012 01:16
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Private Wealth Management PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 20 July 2012 08:03

A wealth manager, asset manager, multi-family office or private bank intending to service the wealthy should first and foremost begin with empathy. Too often the agent seems to be looking at themselves when they talk about what they can do for their clients.

Last Updated on Friday, 20 July 2012 08:16
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Finance 101 for Idiots. How To Fund a Cash Flow Insolvent Business Forever. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 05 July 2012 02:53

Imagine you wanted to issue bonds but no one would buy them from you. Now wouldn't it be clever if you bought them yourself, but now you didn't have the money to buy them, at least not until you issued the bonds. There is a way.

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The Broken World. There Is More To Life Than Money. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 25 June 2012 00:08

So far I've focused my attention on the economic and commercial aspects of the Broken World. But there’s more to life than money.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 26 June 2012 05:19
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This Wounded Economy: Synchronized Slowdown. Recession Spelt With a Capital D. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 20 June 2012 07:25

The financial crisis rolls on. Failure to fully understand the first precipitation in 2008 is leading to errors in policy.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 20 June 2012 10:49
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If You Insist on Keeping The Euro PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 14 June 2012 02:08

It is irrational to establish or maintain a common currency in Europe. If, however, the decision was based on ideology, then the policies designed to hold together the cracked and bursting union are misguided.

Last Updated on Thursday, 14 June 2012 02:41
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Yes, they are bust PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Sunday, 10 June 2012 22:21

The financial position of a business, as organized as a company, can be ascertained fairly accurately. Some businesses lend themselves to measurement more than others. Banks, for example, can be notoriously complex (or they can be simple.) The most opaque finances are those of countries.

Last Updated on Thursday, 21 June 2012 00:57
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Synchronized Slowdown. The Global Recession of 2012. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Saturday, 02 June 2012 08:22

We are in the midst of a global synchronized slowdown. 

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Grexit? Greece Needs to be Ejected To Save the Euro. Grejection. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Sunday, 20 May 2012 02:12

It must be clear by now that the Euro doesn't work. Member countries will always disagree on what is an appropriate exchange rate and thus terms of trade with the rest of the world, and worse, with one another. There is no automatic mechanism to link a (further) Greek default to their exiting the Euro. An unceremonious ejection by current Euro members is more likely as Greeks demonstrate intransigence in the face of insolvency.

Last Updated on Sunday, 20 May 2012 03:07
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Chinese Banking Crisis. Are China's Banks Solvent? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 15 May 2012 00:19

In the May 5th edition of the Economist magazine, there appears an article on China’s banks. It points to the high profitability of the banks and the low level of NPLs.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 15 May 2012 01:40
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Raising Capital PDF Print E-mail
Written by Hedge Fund Marketer   
Friday, 11 May 2012 06:00

Since 2008, raising capital for a hedge fund or private equity fund has become very difficult. In the case of some would be institutional or family office investors, it has always been difficult.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 29 May 2012 00:29
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The Trouble With Banks. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 08 May 2012 02:53

There is something wrong with the fractional reserve banking system. It should have become clear post 2008 but it hasn't.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 08 May 2012 04:45
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How Not To Invest. How To Deal With Complexity PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 25 April 2012 07:41

Diversification hides a multitude of sins. The idea of diversification is to ensure that no single investment or risk factor causes a catastrophic and irrecoverable loss. Too little diversification and you become vulnerable to being taken out by a single factor or event.

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