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A Potentially Missed Opportunity. Southern Europe Has Bought UK and Germany Time. Will It Be Well Spent? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 27 September 2012 00:00

For the US, UK and Germany, a small window remains to raise long term debt. Take the UK for example. They need to issue 30 year debt in quantities sufficient to remove refinancing risk for the next 5 yrs, and then cut tax rates.

Last Updated on Friday, 28 September 2012 02:32
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Friday Pearls of Folly PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 21 September 2012 06:20

Its Friday and its been a long week...

Last Updated on Monday, 24 September 2012 03:11
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QE3. QE(N) PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 18 September 2012 07:03

Finally Bernanke has tired of announcing successive bouts of quantitative easing, he's just announced that the Fed will be buying assets until the labour market picks up.

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Asset Allocation Under Acute Uncertainty - The RIsk Neutral Portfolo PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 11 September 2012 05:26

Uncertainty and the Futility of Having A View.

 

Financial markets are highly uncertain today. As the great workout of 2008 continues to unfurl, the interplay of politics and policy on economics has blunted the traditional methods of fundamental analysis and asset allocation.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 11 September 2012 05:34
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QE, Debt Monetization and Hyperinflation Risk PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 27 August 2012 06:13

The rescue efforts from 2008 - 2012 to bail out the global economy have resulted in a massive inflation of sovereign balance sheets almost everywhere from the US Fed, to the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the Peoples Bank of China, and even the ECB.

Last Updated on Monday, 27 August 2012 06:18
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Liquidity Premia and Financial Oppression PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 24 August 2012 07:50

The co opting of banks in debt monetization, the fear of investors, the shackles of Basel 3, place significant constraints on the banking industry. 

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Investing In Funds PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 21 August 2012 00:08

My wife just showed me her mutual fund statements and reports which she received from the manager. After 15 years, this much vaunted fund manager had generated a nominal return of... zero.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 28 August 2012 22:17
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Economic Growth to Slow, Equities at Risk PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 08 August 2012 06:07

Equities continue to rise or at the very least are resilient in the face of good and bad news., Sovereign bond yields head for zero. Meanwhile economic data seem to indicate a synchronized global slowdown. What gives?

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Interest rates, equities, bonds and FX. Yield Droughts and Yield Junkies. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 25 July 2012 02:36

Interest rates will stay low for a long time. The implications for higher interest rates are sufficiently dire that policy has no choice but to ensure low rates across the major currency curves for the foreseeable future. OK, longer than that.

Last Updated on Saturday, 04 August 2012 01:16
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Private Wealth Management PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 20 July 2012 08:03

A wealth manager, asset manager, multi-family office or private bank intending to service the wealthy should first and foremost begin with empathy. Too often the agent seems to be looking at themselves when they talk about what they can do for their clients.

Last Updated on Friday, 20 July 2012 08:16
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Finance 101 for Idiots. How To Fund a Cash Flow Insolvent Business Forever. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 05 July 2012 02:53

Imagine you wanted to issue bonds but no one would buy them from you. Now wouldn't it be clever if you bought them yourself, but now you didn't have the money to buy them, at least not until you issued the bonds. There is a way.

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The Broken World. There Is More To Life Than Money. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 25 June 2012 00:08

So far I've focused my attention on the economic and commercial aspects of the Broken World. But there’s more to life than money.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 26 June 2012 05:19
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This Wounded Economy: Synchronized Slowdown. Recession Spelt With a Capital D. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 20 June 2012 07:25

The financial crisis rolls on. Failure to fully understand the first precipitation in 2008 is leading to errors in policy.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 20 June 2012 10:49
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If You Insist on Keeping The Euro PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 14 June 2012 02:08

It is irrational to establish or maintain a common currency in Europe. If, however, the decision was based on ideology, then the policies designed to hold together the cracked and bursting union are misguided.

Last Updated on Thursday, 14 June 2012 02:41
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Yes, they are bust PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Sunday, 10 June 2012 22:21

The financial position of a business, as organized as a company, can be ascertained fairly accurately. Some businesses lend themselves to measurement more than others. Banks, for example, can be notoriously complex (or they can be simple.) The most opaque finances are those of countries.

Last Updated on Thursday, 21 June 2012 00:57
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QE Is Only Debt Reorganization. Where Is The Business Restructuring? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 24 September 2012 01:25

I'd like to understand the causality between lower MBS yields and unemployment. I'm sure there is a correlation, but I'm not sure that the dependence is so high.

Last Updated on Monday, 24 September 2012 08:15
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The Consequences of Serial Quantitative Easing, QE3, 4, 5... PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 21 September 2012 06:07

Painkillers are addictive. People follow the path of least resistance. Principles are always compromised. The prudent are the few. And often made to pay.

Last Updated on Friday, 21 September 2012 06:12
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Asian Private Wealth Management PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 18 September 2012 02:41

In a previous article (Private Wealth Management) we explored the failings of the current model of wealth management in Asia. Now we look at possible solutions.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 18 September 2012 07:07
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How Emerging Markets Mature and Employment PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 11 September 2012 04:42

Having just read the article in the latest Economist magazine on Emerging Market economies creating a welfare state I started thinking about how economies mature.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 11 September 2012 05:35
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Emerging versus Developing Markets; Equities versus Bonds PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 27 August 2012 00:36

Given the fragile state of the global economy the resilience of risky assets is remarkable.

Last Updated on Monday, 27 August 2012 01:43
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Where, When and How Does Quantitative Easing End? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 21 August 2012 12:38

What's all this talk of QE3? The private commercial banks have been big buyers of US treasuries to the extent that they are operating QE3 on behalf of the Fed. Buying has accelerated from 63 billion usd in 2011 to 136 billion usd YTD 2012. The Fed is already the largest lender to the US treasury, ahead of the PBOC.

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This Protectionist, Mercantilist, Non-Cooperative Landscape. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 20 August 2012 02:53

You can't have your cake and eat it. The economy is a complex system and like most systems it has a number of variables or parameters. Some of these you can control. Others are the consequence of what you control. It isn't always possible to choose all the controls and consequences.

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ESM = Hedge Fund. ECB = Its Prime Broker. Will the ESM be UCITS? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Saturday, 04 August 2012 01:13

 

The world's major central banks need to buy the debt issued by their governments. This is not just to boost the economy by increasing money supply. It is mostly because no one else will buy their junk bonds.

Last Updated on Saturday, 04 August 2012 01:17
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A Strategy For Erratic Markets: Event Driven and Pentwater Capital. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 23 July 2012 23:38

In these treacherous times the degree of macro risk in markets is substantial and it is tempting to try to capture these opportunities. The confident macro trader will certainly argue for the opportunity while the fundamental investor may be confounded by factors beyond their considerations. One of the more controlled ways of investing in the current environment is event driven strategies.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 01 August 2012 00:27
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The LIBOR Fixing. Its Not Just Banks. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 06 July 2012 00:46

"The truth? You can't handle the truth." Col. Nathan Jessep (Jack Nicholson), A Few Good Men.

Last Updated on Monday, 23 July 2012 23:38
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Consumption, Income, Wealth and Happiness PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 27 June 2012 00:35

Consumption is the most important driver of economic growth, but consumption has to be in large part funded from current income, and to the extent that it is funded from borrowing, and thus future income, the ability to repay needs to be considered in the context of risk to future income.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 27 June 2012 00:37
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Operation Twist 2: Pushing On A String PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 21 June 2012 00:54

The US economy is quite evidently slowing again and the Fed in its wisdom has decided to extend Operation Twist, that is buying longer dated treasuries and funding that with the sale of shorter dated debt. This is like someone saying he's got to water the lawn just after Hurricane Katrina.

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A Solution To The Euro Zone Crisis PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 14 June 2012 03:57

The problem of fiscal union in the Eurozone is not as intractable as many think. There is an elegant solution. Actually, let me retract that, there is a chaotic, potentially contentious, precipitous, union breaking, gut wrenching solution. Which is quite nice.

Last Updated on Thursday, 21 June 2012 23:38
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Euro: Why The Euro Should Be Broken Up PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 14 June 2012 00:20

Forget about fiscal union. If you cannot get convergence in the productivity of all factors of production, that includes not just labour but land and capital as well, you will not have convergence in the reward to factors, and thus convergence in factor prices.

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Raising Capital. Capital Raising for Hedge Funds and Private Equity in Asia. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Hedge Fund Marketer   
Sunday, 03 June 2012 02:59

Capital Raising in Asia. Raising Capital for Hedge Funds. Raising Capital for Private Equity.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 05 June 2012 14:38
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