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Further Evidence of a US Economic Recovery PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 11 November 2011 00:39

 

On 14 October 2011 I wrote that the the Seeds of a US Economic Recovery had been sown and that it lay in the export sector. The robust trend in US exports and the trade balance continues to take hold.

Last Updated on Friday, 11 November 2011 03:39
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No Solution For Euro Crisis PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Saturday, 29 October 2011 23:25

The latest plan for the Euro, for the European banking system, for Greece, Italy, Portugal and for the union itself, is unlikely to work.

Last Updated on Saturday, 29 October 2011 23:28
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A Solution To The Eurozone Crisis? Details Would Be More Helpful PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 27 October 2011 11:36

Has anyone read the actual Euro Summit Statement?

Last Updated on Thursday, 27 October 2011 12:51
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Occupy Wall Street PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 25 October 2011 01:45

 

The Occupy Wall Street protestors are dreaming if they think they'll find any perps in daylight or that signs and slogans are a substitute for garlic, a crucifix, holy water and a sharp wooden stake.

Last Updated on Thursday, 27 October 2011 09:47
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Investment Strategy For a Crumbling World, Update and Rant PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 20 October 2011 09:03

It is a sad state of affairs when the markets (populated by rational investors (we hope)) look to politicians for direction.

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The Seeds of a US Economic Recovery PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 14 October 2011 05:22

 

The signing of a clutch of free trade agreements (with Korea, Colombia and Panama) is not a sign for a quick reversal in America's balance of trade into the black. It is, however, a step in the right direction

Last Updated on Saturday, 15 October 2011 01:16
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The US China Current Account, Capital Account and Trade Issue PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Sunday, 09 October 2011 23:05

I usually have something to say at the end of a busy week in the markets. This week I am speechless.

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Investment and Trading Strategy Amidst Virtually Untradeable Volatility PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 29 September 2011 00:15

 

Markets have been volatile and political and economic news from across the globe have been very confusing. How do we make sense of this?

Last Updated on Thursday, 29 September 2011 00:31
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Investment Strategy for a Crumbling World PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 23 September 2011 03:25

 

A Crumbling World

I think the market agrees that the Fed has no more bullets left. The curve is flat, rates are near zero, mortgage rates are low, and still the economy is weak.

Last Updated on Friday, 23 September 2011 03:28
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Banking Regulation versus Growth PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 19 September 2011 00:26

Credit is a necessary ingredient of economic growth. Employment growth is especially driven by small to medium sized enterprises. Start up businesses and entrepreneurship are an important part of innovation and long term economic growth. While larger, more established businesses have access to capital markets, smaller businesses without a track record do not.

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Where Is My QE3? And Nice Rebound Anyway, Thanks. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Saturday, 27 August 2011 03:28

1280 on the S&P might dispel fears of recession. That would be a false comfort. Markets do not move in straight lines. 2002-2007 was a market in exuberant mood. 2008-2009 was a market in panic and fear that the world as we knew it would end. 2009-2010 was relief, that the world would not end after all. In 2011, reality is sinking in and markets are finding lower levels but not with the lack of liquidity and ferocity that we saw in 2008.

Last Updated on Saturday, 17 September 2011 03:11
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The EUR, Fusion or Fission? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 19 August 2011 08:01

 

Anyone hopeful for fiscal union in the EU should recall the 1992 Treaty on European Union, also called the Maastricht Treaty.

Last Updated on Friday, 19 August 2011 08:07
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An Alternative(s) View PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Saturday, 06 August 2011 06:08

In the current volatility, and don't expect this to be a linear race to the bottom, there will be significant countertrend rallies, its easy to lose sight of the big picture.

- the boom experienced from 2002-2007 was fed by low interest rates, rising housing markets, and unprecedented credit creation on the back of rising collateral value.

- a tangible measure of economic well being should be the real value of GDP less debt. GDP is calculated off expenditure which can be expanded simply by the assumption of more debt. On these measures, 2002-2007 might not be regarded as such an unmitigated success after all.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 10 August 2011 06:22
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Strategy Update Aug 2011 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 03 August 2011 01:34

 

You may recall my view in 1Q that the US economy was already in recession at the time.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 03 August 2011 04:08
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The World Economy In Simple Terms 2H 2011 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 18 July 2011 09:15

With any luck, you won't be hearing from me for the next couple of weeks. So I thought I'd distill some of the themes that I've discussed in the past 6 months into terms as simple as possible.

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The Euro. An Idea Who's Time Is Up PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 07 November 2011 03:05

As a unifying currency the Euro has been pretty divisive. The comprehensive plan that Sarkozy and Merkel devised only a couple of weeks ago has fallen apart.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 08 November 2011 13:55
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European Sovereign Crisis Postponed: Hurrah! PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 28 October 2011 05:23

A financial crisis in the Eurozone has been postponed due to the efforts of a gaggle of politicians overcoming the urge to assault one another and instead come up with an incredible plan to stave of immediate default by Greece and potential default by peripheral Europe.

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Asian Business Card Pass PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 25 October 2011 01:50

 

I've been in Asia for a year now and I still don't get the double handed business card pass. When an Asian does business in the UK, I don't see them in bowler hats and tails with a James Smith cane or umbrella.

Last Updated on Thursday, 27 October 2011 12:52
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Burn 'em Banks PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 25 October 2011 01:13

 

I used to think that banks were a place which kept my money safe. And that they made money lending money out to people who wanted to borrow.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 01:15
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China's Economic Growth in a Global Context PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 20 October 2011 00:23

China’s economy posted a rather frenetic 9.1% GDP growth for the third quarter of 2011, short of analysts’ expectations for an annual growth rate of 9.3% and slower than the 9.5% registered in the second quarter.

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The World Is Not Enough PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 14 October 2011 01:33

The Rich get Richer.

Last Updated on Monday, 29 October 2012 02:14
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How To Play The US Recession. Flatten It. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 29 September 2011 08:11

If as I expect, the economy goes into recession on normal metrics, the yield curve will flatten all the way to flat or inverted, the trade to do is a flattener over 2s and 10s or 2s and 5s. The trade in the 2s and 10s shows more mileage but the really interesting trade is at longer maturities. This benefits from Operation Twist. If the Fed is going to get behind my trade, so be it.

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Operation Twist. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 28 September 2011 07:11

The US economy is clearly weaker now than it was a year ago. Why then is the Fed's response to use weaker medicine (Operation Twist) than the previous rounds of QE?

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Hedge Fund Performance Aug 2011 And A Look Back at 2008 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 21 September 2011 00:53

Hedge funds have had a tough time, but not quite as tough as equities or commodities. Bonds have continued to outperform, much to the bewilderment of investors.

Last Updated on Thursday, 22 September 2011 02:48
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Greece, Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Euro PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Saturday, 17 September 2011 09:05

For a collection of countries to share a common currency and thus monetary policy, it is not clear that a common fiscal policy is required or desired. This is just another claim made by experts that hasn't been questioned or challenged.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 20 September 2011 00:40
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Asian Economies and Investment Outlook PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Sunday, 21 August 2011 11:35

 


China did not save the world in 2009. It saved itself. When international investors effectively refused to further finance the Western economies, it became clear that the Western consumer would soon be the Western net saver.

Last Updated on Monday, 22 August 2011 04:44
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The Current Recession and QE3. Why QE Faces Severe Diminishing Marginal Returns PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 10 August 2011 05:29

Some Thoughts about Quantitative Easing

The crisis of 2008 was precipitated by the realization that debt levels in the economy had become acutely excessive. In a short space of time, investors lost faith in banks and one another, suspecting that their respective counterparties had excessive exposure to the debt that had been created.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 10 August 2011 06:23
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What Hit Me? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 05 August 2011 05:32

 

Following the sharp declines in equity markets globally I thought I would reflect on how one should react. The fact is, you should have sold on July 15 and gone on holiday.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 10 August 2011 06:21
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The US Debt Ceiling Crisis, A Phoney War PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 28 July 2011 10:05

A country never has to default in debt it issues in its own currency. The exception to this is the Euro zone where the ability to print Euros lies with the ECB and not the national banks. Tough.

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A Greek Tragedy: A German Bailout PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 08 July 2011 08:29

 

In a commercial case, faced with an intransigent debtor, (eschewing austerity, rioting in the streets, railing at creditors), the creditors would file an involuntary petition for a plan of reorganization. That they haven’t in the case of Greece is interesting. (Practicalities notwithstanding.)

Last Updated on Saturday, 09 July 2011 01:19
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