Home
S&P Downgrades Europe; Morphine and Major Surgery PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Sunday, 15 January 2012 23:37

 

So S&P has downgraded a gaggle of European countries' sovereign debt ratings. What a surprise. Ratings agencies are not always the last to know, but they are always and everywhere a tad slow.

Last Updated on Monday, 16 January 2012 00:11
Read more...
 
Ten Seconds Into The Future: Investment and Economic Outlook 2012 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Sunday, 08 January 2012 09:15

 

There is a reason I call this Ten Seconds Into The Future. The chances of getting a forecast right on the economy are probably 50-60% if you’re good. The chances of translating that into a call on market direction are probably 45-55% if you’re good. So whenever I express an opinion, I’m setting myself up to be wrong. But everyone needs a hobby. So for 2012, here goes.

Last Updated on Thursday, 22 March 2012 06:25
Read more...
 
The ECB is Ready For QE PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 14 December 2011 01:07

 

For the first time in its history the ECB is extending 3 year collateralized funding at 1% to European banks.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 14 December 2011 03:39
Read more...
 
Bloody Unlikely PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 07 December 2011 06:03

Stuff that’s least expected to happen:

Read more...
 
The Euro: No Economic Rationale for a Common Currency PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 05 December 2011 00:07

 

There is no economic rationale for Europe having a common currency. The USD works in the US because there is a common treasury on top of the state governments and Federal taxes and benefits unite the US. Also, labor mobility is high, and the national identity is at least as strong as the state or regional identity.

Last Updated on Monday, 05 December 2011 00:11
Read more...
 
A US Economic Recovery Is Shaping Up... But PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 02 December 2011 00:18

I first looked for an export led recovery in the US in June in my article Investment Strategy: The New Macro. It was my view at the time that the US economy had been in recession for the last 12 months, despite a 2 year long liquidity and emerging market driven bull market in the S&P500, and that no recovery had yet taken place, at least in real terms. My base scenario was that the US was becoming an export economy.

Read more...
 
China Hard Landing PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 28 November 2011 08:08

 

The problems in Europe lie in plain sight. It is likely that the ECB will eventually print money to monetize European sovereign debt, albeit at the eleventh hour, on the eve of some pan European bank threatening not to open for business one winter’s morning. The debt problems in the US are also pretty evident. Every US Treasury is now a PIK.  India's rupee has recently been sold down as public finances deteriorate. For real trouble one has to look at China.

Last Updated on Monday, 28 November 2011 08:21
Read more...
 
The Solvency of Banks PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 21 November 2011 06:01

Banks trade on confidence and reputation, not financial strength. Put aside for the moment the complicated and confusing Basel rules and let’s apply some common sense. Put aside definitions of risk weighted assets and Tier 1 or Tier 2 capital. Look at a bank as a business.

Read more...
 
A Partial Solution To The Euro Crisis PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 15 November 2011 23:34

A sovereign issuer never has to default on debt denominated in its own currency. This is only true if the sovereign issuer has the ability to print money.

Read more...
 
Merger Arbitrage: An Overview PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Saturday, 12 November 2011 13:35

Merger Arbitrage (sometimes referred to as Risk Arbitrage) is a strategy that invests in the securities of companies that are party to a merger or takeover transaction.

Read more...
 
The Euro. An Idea Who's Time Is Up PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 07 November 2011 03:05

As a unifying currency the Euro has been pretty divisive. The comprehensive plan that Sarkozy and Merkel devised only a couple of weeks ago has fallen apart.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 08 November 2011 13:55
Read more...
 
European Sovereign Crisis Postponed: Hurrah! PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 28 October 2011 05:23

A financial crisis in the Eurozone has been postponed due to the efforts of a gaggle of politicians overcoming the urge to assault one another and instead come up with an incredible plan to stave of immediate default by Greece and potential default by peripheral Europe.

Read more...
 
Asian Business Card Pass PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 25 October 2011 01:50

 

I've been in Asia for a year now and I still don't get the double handed business card pass. When an Asian does business in the UK, I don't see them in bowler hats and tails with a James Smith cane or umbrella.

Last Updated on Thursday, 27 October 2011 12:52
Read more...
 
Burn 'em Banks PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 25 October 2011 01:13

 

I used to think that banks were a place which kept my money safe. And that they made money lending money out to people who wanted to borrow.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 01:15
Read more...
 
China's Economic Growth in a Global Context PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 20 October 2011 00:23

China’s economy posted a rather frenetic 9.1% GDP growth for the third quarter of 2011, short of analysts’ expectations for an annual growth rate of 9.3% and slower than the 9.5% registered in the second quarter.

Read more...
 
The ECB Is Operating QE PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 13 January 2012 02:44

 

The ECB is printing money. It may not yet be directly purchasing sovereign bonds but it is acting as prime broker to the following hedge funds: commercial banks in Italy, Spain, France, Germany, etc etc.

On Dec 14, 2011 it became clear what the ECB’s intentions were. Faced with political constraints and bureaucracy regarding its mandate, a desperately practical ECB decided on a course of action to operate debt monetization on a significant scale circumventing the German government’s envisaged objections. For the full analysis of the ECB’s cunning plan, refer to The ECB is Ready For QE.

Last Updated on Sunday, 15 January 2012 23:49
Read more...
 
Breaking The Euro PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 19 December 2011 13:32

 

So far most commentary about a possible break up of the Euro has focused on an instantaneous exit by a single country. Their expectation that it would inevitably be very damaging leading to extended bank holidays, highly probable defaults, bank runs, and capital flight are not incorrect. However, what they may have missed is that the Euro was not created in a day, and a country need not exit the Euro in a day.

Last Updated on Monday, 19 December 2011 13:36
Read more...
 
Year End Wrap 2011 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 08 December 2011 06:56

 

The behaviour of markets this year has confounded expectations. It is useful to step back and view the landscape from a high level as daily market monitoring can lead to myopia and inability to distinguish between noise and signal. It is also useful to avoid over reliance on established or sophisticated financial or economic models particularly when a simple one will suffice. To understand the present it is necessary to understand the past. It is hoped that with this we might have some idea what the future might look like.

Last Updated on Thursday, 15 December 2011 03:19
Read more...
 
Weak Euro Ahead PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 05 December 2011 07:02

The Euro must fall. If the Euro is to be saved, and if there is not to be some messy bank default with a side order of contagion, the ECB will be engaged in debt monetization very soon.

Read more...
 
Our Economy PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Sunday, 04 December 2011 00:16

 

The future is a wonderful place. Because you can borrow from it.

Last Updated on Thursday, 22 March 2012 05:20
Read more...
 
Fed Extends Swap Lines at Discount PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 01 December 2011 06:47

Yesterday the Fed and 5 other major central banks announced measures to shore up liquidity in the global banking system.

Read more...
 
How Many European Banks Are Insolvent? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 21 November 2011 09:27

Is the European banking system solvent? How many European banks are insolvent? If one marks to market the value of all the assets of each European bank, how many would remain solvent?

Last Updated on Tuesday, 13 December 2011 00:33
Read more...
 
Investment Strategy For a Crumbling World Nov 2011 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 17 November 2011 05:59

The beginnings of a proper recovery are emerging in the US driven by exports and the repatriation of manufacturing.

Read more...
 
Hedge Fund Strategies 101. A Primer PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 14 November 2011 02:45

Hedge funds come in many shapes and sizes. They operate many diverse investment strategies that seek to generate returns that are less dependent on the direction of traditional equity, bond, commodity and currency markets.

Read more...
 
Further Evidence of a US Economic Recovery PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 11 November 2011 00:39

 

On 14 October 2011 I wrote that the the Seeds of a US Economic Recovery had been sown and that it lay in the export sector. The robust trend in US exports and the trade balance continues to take hold.

Last Updated on Friday, 11 November 2011 03:39
Read more...
 
No Solution For Euro Crisis PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Saturday, 29 October 2011 23:25

The latest plan for the Euro, for the European banking system, for Greece, Italy, Portugal and for the union itself, is unlikely to work.

Last Updated on Saturday, 29 October 2011 23:28
Read more...
 
A Solution To The Eurozone Crisis? Details Would Be More Helpful PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 27 October 2011 11:36

Has anyone read the actual Euro Summit Statement?

Last Updated on Thursday, 27 October 2011 12:51
Read more...
 
Occupy Wall Street PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 25 October 2011 01:45

 

The Occupy Wall Street protestors are dreaming if they think they'll find any perps in daylight or that signs and slogans are a substitute for garlic, a crucifix, holy water and a sharp wooden stake.

Last Updated on Thursday, 27 October 2011 09:47
Read more...
 
Investment Strategy For a Crumbling World, Update and Rant PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 20 October 2011 09:03

It is a sad state of affairs when the markets (populated by rational investors (we hope)) look to politicians for direction.

Read more...
 
The Seeds of a US Economic Recovery PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 14 October 2011 05:22

 

The signing of a clutch of free trade agreements (with Korea, Colombia and Panama) is not a sign for a quick reversal in America's balance of trade into the black. It is, however, a step in the right direction

Last Updated on Saturday, 15 October 2011 01:16
Read more...
 
<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Next > End >>

Page 4 of 8

Featured Articles

LexisNexis Corporate & Securities Law Community 2011 Top 50 Blogs



Who's Online

We have 38 guests online

© hedged.biz 2009