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The End Of Quantitive Easing Chapter 2 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 12 April 2011 07:36

By June 2011, Quantitative Easing 2 will be over.

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Ten Seconds Into The Future PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 01 April 2011 03:23

 

Wait. Worry. There is never an easy time to invest but it is a convenient and effective excuse for those who invest or trade in fear and ignorance.

Last Updated on Friday, 01 April 2011 03:25
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Is the US Already in Recession? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 10 March 2011 05:53

Is the US economy in recession? It depends. Measures of economic activity are estimates at best and usually mere guesses.

Last Updated on Thursday, 31 March 2011 02:38
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Les Jeux Sont Faits PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 23 February 2011 23:37

 

Wait. Worry.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 23 February 2011 23:50
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Inflation PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 11 February 2011 06:18

 

Inflation:

I had written about inflation in October 2010, cautioning that the output of the central bank's printing presses would inevitable lead to rising prices.

Last Updated on Friday, 11 February 2011 06:27
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20 Seconds PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 19 January 2011 05:56

The macro outlook is benign and it seems that the fiscal and monetary policies of the world have brought about some kind of normalcy and equilibrium.

Last Updated on Friday, 11 February 2011 06:26
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Current Concerns In The World Economy PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Tuesday, 16 November 2010 00:08

 

What are investors worried about? There is a lot to worry about but there are usually two to three factors that really drive sentiment.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 16 November 2010 00:11
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Hedge Fund Performance Aug 2010 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 20 September 2010 14:50

Hedge Fund Performance Aug 2010

Hedge Funds as a group have done poorly in 2010, yet they continue to outperform equities by a significant margin both in absolute terms as well as on a volatility adjusted basis.

Last Updated on Sunday, 28 November 2010 11:34
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Funds of Hedge Funds performance PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 06 September 2010 14:28

The performance of funds of hedge funds has apparently underperformed that of direct investments in hedge funds even after correcting for fees. Why is this?

Last Updated on Monday, 06 September 2010 14:31
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Hedge Funds versus Equities PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Friday, 13 August 2010 04:08

Forget about correlations.

 

Since Jan 1998, over 159 months,

 

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Stress Testing the European Banks PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Friday, 09 July 2010 02:16

As Europe’s banks undergo so-called stress tests, an old adage comes to mind. Every failed trade becomes an investment. Every failed investment becomes a strategic holding.

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Macro: Equity Markets and Policy PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Tuesday, 06 July 2010 05:02

In economic policy there is a difference of view between the US and the rest of the world. As Japan’s largest trading partner the US is especially empathic to the deflation scenario that has plagued Japan since 1990. Therefore, US monetary policy is likely to err on the side of being too loose rather than vigilant on inflation.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 07 July 2010 11:08
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The State of The Craft PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Tuesday, 01 June 2010 16:48

We are not rewarded to bolster the base of the pyramid but to reach for the stars. 

Last Updated on Tuesday, 01 June 2010 18:21
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European Equity Markets - Country Risk Back Again PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Thursday, 27 May 2010 16:38

Prior to the adoption of the EUR, European equity markets were segmented by country. 

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European Madness PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Tuesday, 25 May 2010 10:37

20% of Nestles business is Europe, 30% in the US, the rest are in emerging markets. 

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PIGS Might Fry PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 07 April 2011 00:33

Portugal needs a central bank willing to monetize its debt.

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The Natural Cycle PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 31 March 2011 02:35

The course of history has a natural cycle and trend to it

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MENA Unhinged PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 01 March 2011 02:04

 

Middle East North Africa, unlike other emerging markets like Asia and Latin America, Europe, the US, has a large proportion of young men itching for a fight.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 01 March 2011 02:13
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Doh! (More Madoff Fun) PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 23 February 2011 04:17

 

Bernie Madoff alleged that JP Morgan "had to know" about his fraudulent scheme. Forget about JP Morgan.  Many of the victims of Madoff were just dishonest.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 23 February 2011 23:42
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Volatility PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 04 February 2011 01:56

Volatility:

After 9 years of trading, Singapore hedge fund Artradis is shutting its doors. At peak Artradis ran over 4 billion USD. Today with assets of just over 500 million Artradis has decided to close.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 23 February 2011 04:24
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10 Seconds Into The Future PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Sunday, 28 November 2010 11:25

The low inflation and low interest rate environment that we experienced in the last 20 years was only possible as inflation was exported away to low cost producer countries. This is equivalent to offshoring production capacity. It must therefore lead to a trade deficit, if it is successful. We know on hindsight that it has been successful.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 19 January 2011 06:04
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Purchasing power of money PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Thursday, 28 October 2010 04:56

Inflation and the internal purchasing power of money:

Last Updated on Wednesday, 23 February 2011 04:18
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The Case for Funds of Hedge Funds PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 06 September 2010 14:52

 The performance of funds of hedge funds has apparently underperformed that of direct investments in hedge funds even after correcting for fees. Why is this? 

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Equity Strategy and the Economy PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Wednesday, 01 September 2010 10:41

 

At the beginning of 2010 equity markets had benefited from almost a year of positive returns. It was clear that it would no longer be so easy to make money.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 01 September 2010 10:57
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Equity Markets. Wait. Worry. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Friday, 09 July 2010 02:21

Most hedge fund managers waited too long when the markets corrected sharply in May, preferring to stay long of the market. As European sovereign default risk rose in the eyes of the media and investors, investors began to revise their views. 

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Addressing weak output growth PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Wednesday, 07 July 2010 14:43

Governments are torn between fiscal austerity and stimulating economic growth. Since credit driven growth ceased in 2008 private sector economic growth has been muted.

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China Signals Flexibility in the CNY exchange rate PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Tuesday, 22 June 2010 07:05

On Saturday, 19 June, China signalled the end of its currency peg which fixed the CNY at 6.83 to the USD and said it would gradually make the its currency more flexible. The CNY appreciated to 6.80 on Monday.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 22 June 2010 18:55
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Country versus Sector Effects: A Trading Strategy PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Tuesday, 01 June 2010 16:43

With the acceleration of globalization in the last 20 years up until 2008 sector risk has risen relative to country risk.

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Ten Seconds Into The Future 2010 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Thursday, 27 May 2010 16:35

In a simple world, we eat what we kill today, we consumer what we produce today.

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Credit Rating Gamma PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 17 May 2010 13:24
The role of ratings agencies has been placed under intense scrutiny in the wake of the 2008 credit crisis.
Last Updated on Monday, 17 May 2010 13:25
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