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The US government should buy houses. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 18 May 2011 00:56

Ever since the great financial crisis even the most ardent capitalist has had his faith in laissez faire economics shaken.

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Fed Policy and Other Distractions PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 28 April 2011 03:52

While the Fed declared that it would continue its purchases of US treasuries under so-called QE2 until the end of June, it also waffled and said that it would maintain its balance sheet going forward until inflation forced their hand to tighten. Breakevens rose, gold rose, stocks rose, US treasuries hardly budged.

Last Updated on Thursday, 28 April 2011 05:15
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Gold, Valuable Because Worthless PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 27 April 2011 07:15

 

The value of gold is that it generates no cash flows, it cannot be consumed, it cannot be used for much beyond ornament. It is in effect quite useless apart from the fact that humans have assumed it as a standard store and measure of value. Were it not scarce in supply it would be completely and utterly worthless.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 27 April 2011 07:19
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The End Of Quantitive Easing Chapter 2 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 12 April 2011 07:36

By June 2011, Quantitative Easing 2 will be over.

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Ten Seconds Into The Future PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 01 April 2011 03:23

 

Wait. Worry. There is never an easy time to invest but it is a convenient and effective excuse for those who invest or trade in fear and ignorance.

Last Updated on Friday, 01 April 2011 03:25
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Is the US Already in Recession? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 10 March 2011 05:53

Is the US economy in recession? It depends. Measures of economic activity are estimates at best and usually mere guesses.

Last Updated on Thursday, 31 March 2011 02:38
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Les Jeux Sont Faits PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 23 February 2011 23:37

 

Wait. Worry.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 23 February 2011 23:50
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Inflation PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 11 February 2011 06:18

 

Inflation:

I had written about inflation in October 2010, cautioning that the output of the central bank's printing presses would inevitable lead to rising prices.

Last Updated on Friday, 11 February 2011 06:27
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20 Seconds PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 19 January 2011 05:56

The macro outlook is benign and it seems that the fiscal and monetary policies of the world have brought about some kind of normalcy and equilibrium.

Last Updated on Friday, 11 February 2011 06:26
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Current Concerns In The World Economy PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Tuesday, 16 November 2010 00:08

 

What are investors worried about? There is a lot to worry about but there are usually two to three factors that really drive sentiment.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 16 November 2010 00:11
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Hedge Fund Performance Aug 2010 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 20 September 2010 14:50

Hedge Fund Performance Aug 2010

Hedge Funds as a group have done poorly in 2010, yet they continue to outperform equities by a significant margin both in absolute terms as well as on a volatility adjusted basis.

Last Updated on Sunday, 28 November 2010 11:34
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Funds of Hedge Funds performance PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 06 September 2010 14:28

The performance of funds of hedge funds has apparently underperformed that of direct investments in hedge funds even after correcting for fees. Why is this?

Last Updated on Monday, 06 September 2010 14:31
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Hedge Funds versus Equities PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Friday, 13 August 2010 04:08

Forget about correlations.

 

Since Jan 1998, over 159 months,

 

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Stress Testing the European Banks PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Friday, 09 July 2010 02:16

As Europe’s banks undergo so-called stress tests, an old adage comes to mind. Every failed trade becomes an investment. Every failed investment becomes a strategic holding.

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Macro: Equity Markets and Policy PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Tuesday, 06 July 2010 05:02

In economic policy there is a difference of view between the US and the rest of the world. As Japan’s largest trading partner the US is especially empathic to the deflation scenario that has plagued Japan since 1990. Therefore, US monetary policy is likely to err on the side of being too loose rather than vigilant on inflation.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 07 July 2010 11:08
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Should We Take A Second Look at Japan? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 12 May 2011 08:10

 

Can the stock market rise when the economy is faltering? As long as monetary conditions are exceptionally loose, the answer is yes. But there are limitations.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 18 May 2011 09:24
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The Fed. A Tiny Question. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 28 April 2011 01:38

 

With the Fed buying MBS and UST’s all the last 3 years, how much of a rate hike could the Fed make before it was itself insolvent?

 

Last Updated on Thursday, 28 April 2011 01:42
 
State of the Craft First Quarter 2011 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 20 April 2011 06:25

Three years after the financial crisis of 2008 and one bull market later, the world looks like a highly risky and uncertain place again

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PIGS Might Fry PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 07 April 2011 00:33

Portugal needs a central bank willing to monetize its debt.

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The Natural Cycle PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 31 March 2011 02:35

The course of history has a natural cycle and trend to it

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MENA Unhinged PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 01 March 2011 02:04

 

Middle East North Africa, unlike other emerging markets like Asia and Latin America, Europe, the US, has a large proportion of young men itching for a fight.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 01 March 2011 02:13
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Doh! (More Madoff Fun) PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 23 February 2011 04:17

 

Bernie Madoff alleged that JP Morgan "had to know" about his fraudulent scheme. Forget about JP Morgan.  Many of the victims of Madoff were just dishonest.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 23 February 2011 23:42
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Volatility PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 04 February 2011 01:56

Volatility:

After 9 years of trading, Singapore hedge fund Artradis is shutting its doors. At peak Artradis ran over 4 billion USD. Today with assets of just over 500 million Artradis has decided to close.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 23 February 2011 04:24
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10 Seconds Into The Future PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Sunday, 28 November 2010 11:25

The low inflation and low interest rate environment that we experienced in the last 20 years was only possible as inflation was exported away to low cost producer countries. This is equivalent to offshoring production capacity. It must therefore lead to a trade deficit, if it is successful. We know on hindsight that it has been successful.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 19 January 2011 06:04
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Purchasing power of money PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Thursday, 28 October 2010 04:56

Inflation and the internal purchasing power of money:

Last Updated on Wednesday, 23 February 2011 04:18
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The Case for Funds of Hedge Funds PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 06 September 2010 14:52

 The performance of funds of hedge funds has apparently underperformed that of direct investments in hedge funds even after correcting for fees. Why is this? 

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Equity Strategy and the Economy PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Wednesday, 01 September 2010 10:41

 

At the beginning of 2010 equity markets had benefited from almost a year of positive returns. It was clear that it would no longer be so easy to make money.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 01 September 2010 10:57
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Equity Markets. Wait. Worry. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Friday, 09 July 2010 02:21

Most hedge fund managers waited too long when the markets corrected sharply in May, preferring to stay long of the market. As European sovereign default risk rose in the eyes of the media and investors, investors began to revise their views. 

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Addressing weak output growth PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Wednesday, 07 July 2010 14:43

Governments are torn between fiscal austerity and stimulating economic growth. Since credit driven growth ceased in 2008 private sector economic growth has been muted.

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China Signals Flexibility in the CNY exchange rate PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Tuesday, 22 June 2010 07:05

On Saturday, 19 June, China signalled the end of its currency peg which fixed the CNY at 6.83 to the USD and said it would gradually make the its currency more flexible. The CNY appreciated to 6.80 on Monday.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 22 June 2010 18:55
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