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Strategy Update Aug 2011 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 03 August 2011 01:34

 

You may recall my view in 1Q that the US economy was already in recession at the time.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 03 August 2011 04:08
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The World Economy In Simple Terms 2H 2011 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 18 July 2011 09:15

With any luck, you won't be hearing from me for the next couple of weeks. So I thought I'd distill some of the themes that I've discussed in the past 6 months into terms as simple as possible.

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Looking For A Recovery In The US. Still Looking. And ISM Numbers That Don't Stack Up PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 08 July 2011 01:23

It has been my forecast that the US economy would be in recession in the first half of 2011. If you use an ex Shelter deflator, it just about gets you there. A dynamic economy does not sit in a recession for long unless there are structural inefficiencies. I do not see that for the US and have therefore been seeking signs of an economic recovery

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Greece, Sovereign Default and the Concept of Solvency PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 29 June 2011 06:42

 

The investment world is replete with opinions and scenarios of a Greek sovereign default. Many commentators speak of Greece being insolvent, but what does this mean in the strictly technical sense of the word.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 29 June 2011 06:48
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Ten Seconds Into The Future 2011 06 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 07 June 2011 08:33

 

A peek at the future seen through a cracked and hazy crystal ball...

Last Updated on Tuesday, 07 June 2011 08:44
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Investment Outlook and Strategy 2011 2H PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 31 May 2011 00:35

 

Investors have short memories. While the reasons for the 2008 financial crisis have not gone away or been adequately addressed, markets have recovered nicely.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 31 May 2011 00:39
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Housing And The Current US Recession. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 18 May 2011 09:40

 

At the heart of the credit crisis in 2007/2008 was the US housing market. The almost one way growth of housing prices led many to discount the possibility of declining prices. Rising prices fed consumption in the form of home equity loans and home equity lines of credit. It also drove consumers to spend not only out of income but also out of capital, namely, home equity.

Last Updated on Thursday, 19 May 2011 00:35
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Should We Take A Second Look at Japan? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 12 May 2011 08:10

 

Can the stock market rise when the economy is faltering? As long as monetary conditions are exceptionally loose, the answer is yes. But there are limitations.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 18 May 2011 09:24
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The Fed. A Tiny Question. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 28 April 2011 01:38

 

With the Fed buying MBS and UST’s all the last 3 years, how much of a rate hike could the Fed make before it was itself insolvent?

 

Last Updated on Thursday, 28 April 2011 01:42
 
State of the Craft First Quarter 2011 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 20 April 2011 06:25

Three years after the financial crisis of 2008 and one bull market later, the world looks like a highly risky and uncertain place again

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PIGS Might Fry PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 07 April 2011 00:33

Portugal needs a central bank willing to monetize its debt.

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The Natural Cycle PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 31 March 2011 02:35

The course of history has a natural cycle and trend to it

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MENA Unhinged PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 01 March 2011 02:04

 

Middle East North Africa, unlike other emerging markets like Asia and Latin America, Europe, the US, has a large proportion of young men itching for a fight.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 01 March 2011 02:13
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Doh! (More Madoff Fun) PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 23 February 2011 04:17

 

Bernie Madoff alleged that JP Morgan "had to know" about his fraudulent scheme. Forget about JP Morgan.  Many of the victims of Madoff were just dishonest.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 23 February 2011 23:42
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Volatility PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 04 February 2011 01:56

Volatility:

After 9 years of trading, Singapore hedge fund Artradis is shutting its doors. At peak Artradis ran over 4 billion USD. Today with assets of just over 500 million Artradis has decided to close.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 23 February 2011 04:24
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The US Debt Ceiling Crisis, A Phoney War PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 28 July 2011 10:05

A country never has to default in debt it issues in its own currency. The exception to this is the Euro zone where the ability to print Euros lies with the ECB and not the national banks. Tough.

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A Greek Tragedy: A German Bailout PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 08 July 2011 08:29

 

In a commercial case, faced with an intransigent debtor, (eschewing austerity, rioting in the streets, railing at creditors), the creditors would file an involuntary petition for a plan of reorganization. That they haven’t in the case of Greece is interesting. (Practicalities notwithstanding.)

Last Updated on Saturday, 09 July 2011 01:19
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Prospects For A Wounded Economy: 2H 2011 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 07 July 2011 06:29

 

It is never a trivial exercise to guess the direction of markets and asset classes. The best investment managers barely get it right more than half of the time. They make money because they are tactical and quick to cut losing positions and let winners ride, or they find trade expressions which give them an edge such as where there is convexity, or they find arbitrage opportunities where they build in their edge structurally. With that in mind, I will venture into speculation.

Last Updated on Saturday, 09 July 2011 01:10
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Investment Strategy: The New Macro PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 24 June 2011 02:39

Investing has become more fraught with danger as policy attempts to do what policy has never done before. New ways of thinking about asset allocation need to be developed. We begin with prospects for a few economies and how they should be expressed under these new regimes.

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QE3 Is Already Underway PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 01 June 2011 08:34

 

Just as the transition from QE to QE2, the purchase of MBS to the purchase of US treasuries was a seamless exercise, so too the transition to QE3, the funding of banks to purchase US treasuries will be seamless and this time if done right, done without fanfare.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 01 June 2011 08:39
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Random Thoughts for Random Markets PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 25 May 2011 06:45

 

Strong commodity markets create winners and losers.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 25 May 2011 06:48
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The US government should buy houses. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 18 May 2011 00:56

Ever since the great financial crisis even the most ardent capitalist has had his faith in laissez faire economics shaken.

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Fed Policy and Other Distractions PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 28 April 2011 03:52

While the Fed declared that it would continue its purchases of US treasuries under so-called QE2 until the end of June, it also waffled and said that it would maintain its balance sheet going forward until inflation forced their hand to tighten. Breakevens rose, gold rose, stocks rose, US treasuries hardly budged.

Last Updated on Thursday, 28 April 2011 05:15
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Gold, Valuable Because Worthless PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 27 April 2011 07:15

 

The value of gold is that it generates no cash flows, it cannot be consumed, it cannot be used for much beyond ornament. It is in effect quite useless apart from the fact that humans have assumed it as a standard store and measure of value. Were it not scarce in supply it would be completely and utterly worthless.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 27 April 2011 07:19
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The End Of Quantitive Easing Chapter 2 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 12 April 2011 07:36

By June 2011, Quantitative Easing 2 will be over.

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Ten Seconds Into The Future PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 01 April 2011 03:23

 

Wait. Worry. There is never an easy time to invest but it is a convenient and effective excuse for those who invest or trade in fear and ignorance.

Last Updated on Friday, 01 April 2011 03:25
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Is the US Already in Recession? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 10 March 2011 05:53

Is the US economy in recession? It depends. Measures of economic activity are estimates at best and usually mere guesses.

Last Updated on Thursday, 31 March 2011 02:38
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Les Jeux Sont Faits PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 23 February 2011 23:37

 

Wait. Worry.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 23 February 2011 23:50
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Inflation PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 11 February 2011 06:18

 

Inflation:

I had written about inflation in October 2010, cautioning that the output of the central bank's printing presses would inevitable lead to rising prices.

Last Updated on Friday, 11 February 2011 06:27
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20 Seconds PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 19 January 2011 05:56

The macro outlook is benign and it seems that the fiscal and monetary policies of the world have brought about some kind of normalcy and equilibrium.

Last Updated on Friday, 11 February 2011 06:26
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