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2010. Looking back. Looking forward. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 04 January 2010 07:14

2009 was an interesting year in a different way that 2008 was an interesting year.

In 2008 we thought that financial markets would disintegrate. In 2009, equities rallied, credit spreads tightened, the TED spread and LIBOR tightened while commodities recovered and emerging market sovereign bonds saw robust demand. Low risk developed world government bonds fared less well.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 11 October 2011 02:56
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The Problem With Our Financial System and a response to Jeremy Grantham PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Wednesday, 09 December 2009 04:30

Jeremy Grantham of GMO in a recent letter writes about a number of interesting points:

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UCITS III: The Opportunity PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 09 November 2009 04:35
Thinking about UCITS from the investment manager’s perspective:

 Those of us faced with the reality of European hedge fund regulation will be familiar with UCITS III. You get points for knowing what UCITS actually means: Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities, quite meaningless and proof positive of its European provenance.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 11 May 2010 08:55
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Central Banks and Moral Hazard PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 26 October 2009 02:15

It is time for central banks to back away. Not from raising or cutting rates. It is time for them to extricate themselves from any activities that might distort market prices.

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Are Equities (and other risky assets) Overvalued? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Thursday, 08 October 2009 14:45
Its the beginning of the 4th quarter and the 3rd quarter performance results and commentaries from the hedge fund managers are coming in thick and fast. A common thread runs through most of them. Risky assets are over-valued.
Last Updated on Friday, 09 October 2009 02:37
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Morgan Stanley Hedge Fund Forum PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Wednesday, 30 September 2009 10:22

The Morgan Stanley Hedge Fund Forum 2009 was very interesting this year.

Last Updated on Thursday, 01 October 2009 16:40
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Australian property still a bargain PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Tuesday, 15 September 2009 06:32

All property investors love a bargain, and six months ago one was spoilt for choice. Opportunities to buy a dollar of assets for 50 cents - or in some cases, 15 cents - abounded.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 15 September 2009 06:38
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Renewables PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Thursday, 03 September 2009 03:17

Renewable energy will be an investment theme for the foreseeable future, and we are very attuned to some recent developments that have the potential to revolutionise energy production. 

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Is The Equity Bear Market Rally Really Over? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 24 August 2009 04:25

Equity Market Review

Once again equity markets are looking vulnerable.

Last Updated on Monday, 24 August 2009 04:30
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Stock Market Dispersions: European Example PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 17 August 2009 15:29

Here is an analysis of the dispersion of returns in the various sectors of the European equity markets as defined by the Stoxx sub sector indices.

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Irrational exuberance PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Friday, 07 August 2009 00:00

Most Western Central Bankers, and virtually all private sector economists have now declared the recession over. Probably around three months late, but better than their forecasting record going into said recession.

Last Updated on Thursday, 13 August 2009 01:40
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Cars and platinum PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Wednesday, 29 July 2009 07:12

The Auto industry has finally had some good news with some stunning figures for Chinese car sales – up over 40% YoY. 

Last Updated on Wednesday, 29 July 2009 07:15
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At this rate, the Democrats will own the US stockmarket just in time for the next election PDF Print E-mail
Written by Roundtripper   
Wednesday, 22 July 2009 06:37

At the sound of becoming a broken record....MARKETS ARE NOW OFFICIALLY DETERMINED BY DEMOCRATIC POLICY. The stock market crash in 2008 won them the election, so they think if they prop it up for the next four years, it will win them a second term.

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China bought into a Madoff fund! Must watch video. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Roundtripper   
Tuesday, 14 July 2009 04:55

No words from me this week. Just watch the video.

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Hedge Funds: The State of the Craft: June 2009 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Friday, 10 July 2009 03:28

The fundamental picture:

The second quarter of 2009 witnessed a continuation of the rally in all risky assets from equities to credit to commodities and energy to illiquid Asian physical real estate. 

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The case for traditional and alternative energy space integration PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Monday, 04 January 2010 07:03

At the December Copenhagen conference on climate change rapidly approaching, all eyes will be on America and China, the world’s two biggest greenhouse gas polluters, which combine to account for 40% of global carbon-dioxide emissions. Their commitment and leadership during the talks will be critical for laying the framework and principles for establishing a successor to Kyoto.

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Hedge Fund Performance 2009 09 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 16 November 2009 04:22

Hedge Fund Performance 2009 09

 

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Hedge Fund Leverage. Too much or too little? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 02 November 2009 15:05

Hedge Fund Leverage. Too much or too little?

Every time there is a hedge fund crisis the subject of leverage comes up. But how does one define leverage in a hedge fund? Is it the same definition you would use for a proprietary trading desk being allocated risk?

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Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 12 October 2009 13:57

In my earlier post of 8 October, I argued that if one had no memory and only asset allocated based on prevailing pricing, equities did not appear overvalued.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 13 October 2009 15:31
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Reality check PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Sunday, 04 October 2009 10:42

With markets roaring ahead and economists muttering about strong growth in the Western economies, one feels a little churlish in pointing out the Panglossian nature of these pronouncements, but we do feel compelled to dwell on a few of the less positive economic issues that seem to have been temporarily forgotten by the newly emboldened investor.

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Where is the S&P500 Going? Another Unscientific Look PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Tuesday, 15 September 2009 07:17

Betting, Outright Gambling on the Stock Market

On 19 Feb 2009 I wrote an article arbitrarily calling for the S&P 500 to bottom at 650. Where is the S&P500 Going? An Unscientific Look.  It bottomed out on 9 Mar 2009 at 676.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 30 September 2009 10:24
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Serial Correlations in Investment Returns PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Tuesday, 08 September 2009 03:50

Autocorrelations:

The investment world loves correlations. Option hedgers love correlations. Everyone loves correlations. Across assets. But how about across time, within the same asset? 

Last Updated on Friday, 11 September 2009 16:21
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Quant Risk Management and Other Fallacies PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 31 August 2009 08:29

Quant Risk Management

Statistical or mathematical techniques have been used in investment management and finance to better understand risk but there are limitations, sometimes severe limitations.

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Japan Exits Recession: But where to? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Thursday, 20 August 2009 02:43

Japan's quarter on quarter GDP growth recorded a 0.90% increase versus consensus estimates of 1.0% and a prior quarter's alarming 3.8% decline. There are several ways to read this.

Last Updated on Thursday, 20 August 2009 02:45
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Chinese wind PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Friday, 07 August 2009 00:00

The speed at which China is addressing its voracious appetite for energy and dire environmental issues is not being given enough attention.

Last Updated on Thursday, 13 August 2009 01:41
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Economic Recovery, of Sorts PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 03 August 2009 05:41

See my earlier article A Return to Boom and Bust, where I argue that product and asset markets will be driven by liquidity and leverage and monetary policy in the short to medium term due to the extraordinary circumstances we find ourselves in in the aftermath of the bursting of the great credit bubble. Monetary policy will be accomodative and reflationary to the extent that price and output must rise. That is the condition that central banks will target. The result? If I am right, then the following is likely to happen:

Last Updated on Monday, 03 August 2009 05:43
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A Return To Boom and Bust PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 27 July 2009 04:52

Does the printing of money by central banks inevitably lead to inflation?

 

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Japanese Beer Wars PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Thursday, 16 July 2009 13:16

In a market known for measured and deliberate and more often than not friendly M&A, the merger between Kirin and Suntory is an interesting transaction. The Kirin Suntory deal is by no means hostile but it is a merger of rivals. The merger if consummated will create the fifth largest food and beverage company in the world. There are several remarkable features of the deal.

Last Updated on Thursday, 16 July 2009 13:19
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When will this market manipulation stop? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Roundtripper   
Tuesday, 14 July 2009 04:52

The stockmarket is no longer determined by fundamentals nor technicals nor free market forces but by the desperation of governments, central banks and policymakers hell bent to give the impression that they have averted an economic crisis which in the end will be inevitable.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 21 July 2009 05:06
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Hedge Fund Dispersion of Returns by Strategy PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Wednesday, 08 July 2009 02:37

Here is a chart of the dispersion of hedge fund returns across strategies as classified by Hedge Fund Research. It is the simple standard deviation of the monthly returns across the 18 strategy indices compiled by HFR.

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