Home
Stock Market Dispersions: European Example PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 17 August 2009 15:29

Here is an analysis of the dispersion of returns in the various sectors of the European equity markets as defined by the Stoxx sub sector indices.

Read more...
 
Irrational exuberance PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Friday, 07 August 2009 00:00

Most Western Central Bankers, and virtually all private sector economists have now declared the recession over. Probably around three months late, but better than their forecasting record going into said recession.

Last Updated on Thursday, 13 August 2009 01:40
Read more...
 
Cars and platinum PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Wednesday, 29 July 2009 07:12

The Auto industry has finally had some good news with some stunning figures for Chinese car sales – up over 40% YoY. 

Last Updated on Wednesday, 29 July 2009 07:15
Read more...
 
At this rate, the Democrats will own the US stockmarket just in time for the next election PDF Print E-mail
Written by Roundtripper   
Wednesday, 22 July 2009 06:37

At the sound of becoming a broken record....MARKETS ARE NOW OFFICIALLY DETERMINED BY DEMOCRATIC POLICY. The stock market crash in 2008 won them the election, so they think if they prop it up for the next four years, it will win them a second term.

Read more...
 
China bought into a Madoff fund! Must watch video. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Roundtripper   
Tuesday, 14 July 2009 04:55

No words from me this week. Just watch the video.

Read more...
 
Hedge Funds: The State of the Craft: June 2009 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Friday, 10 July 2009 03:28

The fundamental picture:

The second quarter of 2009 witnessed a continuation of the rally in all risky assets from equities to credit to commodities and energy to illiquid Asian physical real estate. 

Read more...
 
Reply to Roundtripper's article about Market Manipulation PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Friday, 03 July 2009 11:00

Dear Roundtripper,

A very interesting post. (Stop manipulating the (US) stock market!) Go back to March 2009, the beginning of the current relief rally, and you may recall that just a week prior to triple witching, a slew of good news regarding further bail outs coincided with what could well have been a significant negative gamma on the Street.

Read more...
 
Decoupling: The Myth and The Mystery PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Thursday, 02 July 2009 06:51

In emerging markets, something bad happens every 3 to 4 years, and something very bad happens every 7 to 8 years. Bad things tend to happen when periods of high growth store up imbalances which accumulate till breaking point or hide fundamental structural flaws. More often than not, they are borne from lack of diversification or hedging of risk; or the distortion of the price mechanism and deviations from free markets.

Read more...
 
Don't believe the China lies. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Roundtripper   
Monday, 29 June 2009 04:42

Much has been said about China saving the world from economic armageddon. Well I have news for the China bulls, the macro-economic data that you are pinning your investment hopes on are no where near as good as you think. In fact they are probably quite far off the mark.

Read more...
 
China's security on commodity supply PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Wednesday, 24 June 2009 05:17

The politicians in Canberra are probably as popular in Beijing at the moment as Gordon Ramsay is in Australian news studios. Having rebuffed the bid for Ozminerals’ Prominent Hill, they will also be held culpable in Chinese eyes for Rio’s (partially) commercially driven snub to Chinalco, which was then made much worse by the announcement of the Rio/BHP iron ore joint venture, neatly creating a duopoly from the prior three player market. 

Read more...
 
Efficient market theory - RIP PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Monday, 22 June 2009 16:32

After five decades, the Institute for Financial Analysis has polled its members, who now no longer believe in efficient markets – or, more specifically, that share prices do not reflect all available information.

Read more...
 
Temasek Holdings Investment Performance and Transparency PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Tuesday, 16 June 2009 02:41

On 8 June, I wrote in the Straits Times, a newspaper in Singapore that Temasek Holdings should not shy away from risk despite recent losses. Here is the article: 

Last Updated on Tuesday, 16 June 2009 02:45
Read more...
 
India PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Saturday, 13 June 2009 10:59

Five years ago India had an election. There was a surprise victory for the Congress-led coalition over the BJP and the market fell 20% in a day. This marked the low and the market subsequently quadrupled over the next three and a half years. As it turned out the effect of having to accommodate some of the left-leaning coalition partners on economic policy was somewhere between immaterial and zero.

Read more...
 
What Do Hedge Fund Investors Want? June 2009 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Thursday, 11 June 2009 07:53

Although I have never been a marketer, and am firmly on the buy side, being part of First Avenue Partners, effectively a marketing firm active in hedge funds, private equity and real estate, as well as a hedge fund seeder, gives me a very interesting view on what investors want. Being responsible for due diligence and manager selection for the hedge fund practice, I spend most of my time looking at the hedge fund industry, but I also keep track on the private equity and real estate fund management industry as there are often interesting overlaps.

Read more...
 
A Renaissance For The Hedge Fund Industry PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Thursday, 04 June 2009 18:22

The month of June is replete with hedge fund conferences. Conferences earlier this year were either poorly attended, or else investors attended them for the free breakfast or lunch, a chance to commiserate with fellow sufferers of the global financial crisis/hedge fund witch hunt. What a difference a couple of months of rising markets make. A palpable optimism is creeping back into the industry.

Last Updated on Friday, 05 June 2009 16:04
Read more...
 
Chinese wind PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Friday, 07 August 2009 00:00

The speed at which China is addressing its voracious appetite for energy and dire environmental issues is not being given enough attention.

Last Updated on Thursday, 13 August 2009 01:41
Read more...
 
Economic Recovery, of Sorts PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 03 August 2009 05:41

See my earlier article A Return to Boom and Bust, where I argue that product and asset markets will be driven by liquidity and leverage and monetary policy in the short to medium term due to the extraordinary circumstances we find ourselves in in the aftermath of the bursting of the great credit bubble. Monetary policy will be accomodative and reflationary to the extent that price and output must rise. That is the condition that central banks will target. The result? If I am right, then the following is likely to happen:

Last Updated on Monday, 03 August 2009 05:43
Read more...
 
A Return To Boom and Bust PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 27 July 2009 04:52

Does the printing of money by central banks inevitably lead to inflation?

 

Read more...
 
Japanese Beer Wars PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Thursday, 16 July 2009 13:16

In a market known for measured and deliberate and more often than not friendly M&A, the merger between Kirin and Suntory is an interesting transaction. The Kirin Suntory deal is by no means hostile but it is a merger of rivals. The merger if consummated will create the fifth largest food and beverage company in the world. There are several remarkable features of the deal.

Last Updated on Thursday, 16 July 2009 13:19
Read more...
 
When will this market manipulation stop? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Roundtripper   
Tuesday, 14 July 2009 04:52

The stockmarket is no longer determined by fundamentals nor technicals nor free market forces but by the desperation of governments, central banks and policymakers hell bent to give the impression that they have averted an economic crisis which in the end will be inevitable.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 21 July 2009 05:06
Read more...
 
Hedge Fund Dispersion of Returns by Strategy PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Wednesday, 08 July 2009 02:37

Here is a chart of the dispersion of hedge fund returns across strategies as classified by Hedge Fund Research. It is the simple standard deviation of the monthly returns across the 18 strategy indices compiled by HFR.

Read more...
 
Stop manipulating the (US) stock market! PDF Print E-mail
Written by Roundtripper   
Friday, 03 July 2009 08:30

The Dow is 35% above its March lows and has had the best quarter's performance since 1998. Why is that? Because the recession is over and we are seeing the green shoots of economic recovery? 

Read more...
 
Some Macro Strategies June 2009 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Tuesday, 30 June 2009 04:18

Part of the recovery and healing process of the world economy will involve an evolution of the trade positions of countries. As profligate nations save and emerging market consumers expand, Western trade deficits and emerging market trade surpluses are likely to contract towards balance. The transactional demand for currency will likely support the USD and EUR while CNY, JPY, KRW, INR weaken. 

Read more...
 
The End of This Equity Market Rally PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Thursday, 25 June 2009 10:32

I am not an equity market bear; if anything I am firmly of the view that the world economy is on the path of recovery and repair. Equity markets have, however, run well ahead of themselves and of fundamentals. Technically, equities are heavily overbought. Fundamentally, they are not cheap either. In an earlier article dated 15 June 2009, I suggested that This Equity Market Rally had run out of steam and that a significant correction was probable. 

Read more...
 
The Unobservable Economic Recovery PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Wednesday, 24 June 2009 05:08

The rally in global equity markets masks the fact that economic fundamentals remain weak. The bulls say that the recovery is underway, that green shoots of economic recovery are sprouting, that economies have passed their trough; some even go as far as to suggest a V shaped recovery (Goldman Sachs is one of them). 

Read more...
 
Your last chance to sell..Dow 5,000 by year end? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Roundtripper   
Thursday, 18 June 2009 02:43

As mentioned in my last post, there are signs that the mini bull market in the bear storm is about to come to an end. 

Read more...
 
This Equity Market Rally PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 15 June 2009 09:42

Markets rarely ever move in straight lines. Regardless of fundamentals, it was irrational to believe in February 2009 that equity markets would sink to zero. In early March, equity markets rebounded and are on an almost constant upward incline. Beware.

Read more...
 
China ticking along nicely PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Saturday, 13 June 2009 10:56

Fixed asset investment figures for the first 5 months showed a 33% increase YoY. For May alone it was up 38% YoY. Within that real estate investment in May was up 12% versus a 6% improvement in April.  Despite these big numbers, the stimulus measures continue.

Auto numbers were up by a similar quantum YoY supporting evidence of renewed consumer confidence.

We have said before that China cannot save the world single handed but that it can save itself. The evidence appears supportive.

Last Updated on Saturday, 13 June 2009 10:58
 
Has the rally come to an end? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Roundtripper   
Monday, 08 June 2009 04:36

Stronger than expected payroll numbers. US markets rallied in the morning and fizzled at the close. A few weeks ago, this sort of better than expected economic indicator would have fueled a rally of at least 2% for the SPY and the Dow. What happened on Friday smells like distribution to me.  The reality is that things aren't really getting better, they're just getting worse more slowly.

Read more...
 
To chase or not to chase? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Roundtripper   
Thursday, 04 June 2009 08:20

You’re performance is lagging the market. Maybe you are only up single digits or mid teens, ytd. The (MSCI Asia-ex Japan) market is +35%. 

Last Updated on Thursday, 04 June 2009 08:28
Read more...
 
<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Next > End >>

Page 6 of 8

Featured Articles

LexisNexis Corporate & Securities Law Community 2011 Top 50 Blogs



Who's Online

We have 28 guests online

© hedged.biz 2009