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Credit Rating Gamma PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 17 May 2010 13:24
The role of ratings agencies has been placed under intense scrutiny in the wake of the 2008 credit crisis.
Last Updated on Monday, 17 May 2010 13:25
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UCITS III for Hedge Fund Strategies: A Brief Guide PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Tuesday, 11 May 2010 12:54
 What are UCITS?
Last Updated on Tuesday, 11 May 2010 16:49
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SEC versus Goldman Sachs PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Saturday, 24 April 2010 08:00

The SEC alleges that:

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The UK Budget 2010: PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 05 April 2010 07:28

Darling's budget is not only a mistake from an economic point of view, it is a strategic mistake politically.

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Taxation PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 29 March 2010 03:10

Imagine you ran a business in an industry that is mildly competitive but not overly so. Your balance sheet is stretched, your debt service is stretched and your bond spreads have widened.

Last Updated on Monday, 29 March 2010 03:12
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Capitalism is bad at fiscal and monetary policy PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 15 March 2010 17:06

Capitalism is bad at fiscal policy. Capitalism is also bad at monetary policy but that’s less apparent. You cannot hear a loud hum but you can hear a small bang.

Last Updated on Monday, 22 March 2010 08:07
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Why Equity Markets Are Weak PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Friday, 05 March 2010 11:08

Its not fundamentals that are driving equity markets and responsible for the current weakness. Fundamentals were bound to weaken once the first round of inventory restocking had taken place and the benefits of cost cutting had been realized.

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2008 - 2009: Crisis and Recovery PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Friday, 05 March 2010 11:00

Having attended various lectures by academics, regulators, central bankers and investors in the opening weeks of 2010, and being surprised at the diversity of views among the experts, I thought to look back at the 2008 credit crisis in a bit more detail to see what I missed. I tried to look back at the events from first principles and to avoid any biases I might have as a member of the alternatives investment industry.

Last Updated on Friday, 05 March 2010 11:03
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Why China is Screwed PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Tuesday, 23 February 2010 08:04
  1. The US owes China 1 trillion bucks. Is it any surprise that China wants a stronger USD?
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Problems in Euroland and implications for the Asian investor PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Monday, 15 February 2010 08:11

For a week in late 2009 we all became experts on the Middle East as Dubai’s finances imploded (hands up all those who had to look up the other five emirates apart from Abu Dhabi and Dubai). 

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Its All Greek To Me PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 08 February 2010 07:47

January 2010 was a bad month for investing. Markets fell from equities to credit to commodities. The USD was strong by default. Fears of a sovereign default by Greece was blamed for the general de-risking.

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Hedge Fund Performance 2009 and Outlook 2010 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 25 January 2010 04:28

Hedge Fund Performance Table 2009:

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Equity Market Neutral Prospects. Stoxx Dispersion Chart PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 18 January 2010 05:29

In 2009, the HFRI Equity Market Neutral Index was up 1.69%. The HFRI Index of all strategies was up over 20% and the equity long short index was up over 26%. Equity long short hides a multitude of sins, like a chronic long bias and market timing. Equity market neutral, however, is fairly specific.

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Investment Outlook 2010 and Post Mortem 2009 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Thursday, 14 January 2010 04:48

Post Mortem:

At the beginning of 2009 I wrote down my investment expectations and outlook. Why I do that at the beginning of the year I don’t know. It’s just an arbitrary point in time. Be that as it may, I am hereby repeating that irrationality by coming up with my expectations for 2010.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 11 October 2011 02:55
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2010. Looking back. Looking forward. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 04 January 2010 07:14

2009 was an interesting year in a different way that 2008 was an interesting year.

In 2008 we thought that financial markets would disintegrate. In 2009, equities rallied, credit spreads tightened, the TED spread and LIBOR tightened while commodities recovered and emerging market sovereign bonds saw robust demand. Low risk developed world government bonds fared less well.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 11 October 2011 02:56
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Hedge Fund Performance April 2010 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Friday, 14 May 2010 13:49
Recent history has reinforced the fact that it is very hard to time hedge fund strategies.
Last Updated on Friday, 14 May 2010 13:56
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Risk: Toxic Gamma Radiation PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 10 May 2010 14:58
Market volatility tends to fade and spike over time. Sharp corrections in financial markets occur more frequently than predicted by statistical theory. How do we explain these phenomena?
Last Updated on Monday, 10 May 2010 15:07
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Inflation is coming PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Thursday, 15 April 2010 00:00
Yesterday the MAS in Singapore announced a re-centring of their FX basket and a bias towards a strong currency to counter inflationary pressure. Brazil has a CPI running over 5%, while India’s WPI is near 10% -  as is Russia’s.
Last Updated on Sunday, 06 June 2010 09:14
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How Not To Invest In Hedge Funds PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 29 March 2010 03:13

How Not To Invest In Hedge Funds:

Last Updated on Monday, 29 March 2010 12:53
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Hedge Fund Investing In A Post 2008 World PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Wednesday, 24 March 2010 12:36

Investing is not for the faint of heart. Neither is it for the psychotic risk taker. Investing requires balance, rationality and a good deal of detached and independent thinking. So don’t listen to me. Figure it out for yourselves. Here are a few common declarations by investors and a few (loaded) questions they should ask.

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Sovereign Debt Investing: A Distress Investing Approach PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Wednesday, 10 March 2010 16:35
The credit quality of sovereign debt is the subject of current scrutiny and debate.
The business of government is a complex one with multiple objectives and indeed philosophies.
Some believe that governments are inherently inefficient and therefore should have their mandate clearly defined and limited. Others see government as an arbiter that corrects market imperfections.
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US Indebtedness PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Friday, 05 March 2010 11:04

Debt levels as a percentage of GDP:

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Initial Jobless Claims: Data issues PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Tuesday, 23 February 2010 08:07

The equity markets have been weak on the sovereign risk scares in Greece, Spain and Portugal. As much as this, employment numbers in the US have now come in below forecast in the last 4 weeks.

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Regulation of Banks PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Tuesday, 23 February 2010 08:01

There is an opportunity here to eschew heavy handed regulation.

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World Trade 2010 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 15 February 2010 08:07

In the latter part of 2008, the value of world trade plummeted as availability of trade finance evaporated at the same time that global economic growth slowed drastically.

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Equity valuations PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 01 February 2010 06:53

If investment strategy was easy in early 2009, its because it was. Valuations of equities relative to cash or treasuries was at an extreme low making equities highly attractive.

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Obama Bank Plan - Glass Steagall Redux PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Friday, 22 January 2010 12:39

It sounds like a plan. President Obama in an effort to address what is widely believed to be a flawed banking model has decided to ressurrect the Glass Steagall Act 1933.

Last Updated on Saturday, 23 January 2010 06:11
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Conditional Option Trade: Developed and Emerging Market Equities PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 18 January 2010 05:26

Developed market (US say) GDP rises prompting a reversal of quantitative easing, interest rate and fiscal policy. Domestic equities could rise or fall depending on sentiment at the time.

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Regulation of hedge funds in Asia PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 11 January 2010 03:53

The SEC and the FSA are some of the most sophisticated and well resourced regulators in the world. They have to be, they deal with the nice people over on Wall Street and the City. 

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The case for traditional and alternative energy space integration PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Monday, 04 January 2010 07:03

At the December Copenhagen conference on climate change rapidly approaching, all eyes will be on America and China, the world’s two biggest greenhouse gas polluters, which combine to account for 40% of global carbon-dioxide emissions. Their commitment and leadership during the talks will be critical for laying the framework and principles for establishing a successor to Kyoto.

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