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Problems in Euroland and implications for the Asian investor PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Monday, 15 February 2010 08:11

For a week in late 2009 we all became experts on the Middle East as Dubai’s finances imploded (hands up all those who had to look up the other five emirates apart from Abu Dhabi and Dubai). 

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Its All Greek To Me PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 08 February 2010 07:47

January 2010 was a bad month for investing. Markets fell from equities to credit to commodities. The USD was strong by default. Fears of a sovereign default by Greece was blamed for the general de-risking.

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Hedge Fund Performance 2009 and Outlook 2010 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 25 January 2010 04:28

Hedge Fund Performance Table 2009:

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Equity Market Neutral Prospects. Stoxx Dispersion Chart PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 18 January 2010 05:29

In 2009, the HFRI Equity Market Neutral Index was up 1.69%. The HFRI Index of all strategies was up over 20% and the equity long short index was up over 26%. Equity long short hides a multitude of sins, like a chronic long bias and market timing. Equity market neutral, however, is fairly specific.

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Investment Outlook 2010 and Post Mortem 2009 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Thursday, 14 January 2010 04:48

Post Mortem:

At the beginning of 2009 I wrote down my investment expectations and outlook. Why I do that at the beginning of the year I don’t know. It’s just an arbitrary point in time. Be that as it may, I am hereby repeating that irrationality by coming up with my expectations for 2010.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 11 October 2011 02:55
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2010. Looking back. Looking forward. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 04 January 2010 07:14

2009 was an interesting year in a different way that 2008 was an interesting year.

In 2008 we thought that financial markets would disintegrate. In 2009, equities rallied, credit spreads tightened, the TED spread and LIBOR tightened while commodities recovered and emerging market sovereign bonds saw robust demand. Low risk developed world government bonds fared less well.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 11 October 2011 02:56
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The Problem With Our Financial System and a response to Jeremy Grantham PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Wednesday, 09 December 2009 04:30

Jeremy Grantham of GMO in a recent letter writes about a number of interesting points:

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UCITS III: The Opportunity PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 09 November 2009 04:35
Thinking about UCITS from the investment manager’s perspective:

 Those of us faced with the reality of European hedge fund regulation will be familiar with UCITS III. You get points for knowing what UCITS actually means: Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities, quite meaningless and proof positive of its European provenance.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 11 May 2010 08:55
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Central Banks and Moral Hazard PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 26 October 2009 02:15

It is time for central banks to back away. Not from raising or cutting rates. It is time for them to extricate themselves from any activities that might distort market prices.

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Are Equities (and other risky assets) Overvalued? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Thursday, 08 October 2009 14:45
Its the beginning of the 4th quarter and the 3rd quarter performance results and commentaries from the hedge fund managers are coming in thick and fast. A common thread runs through most of them. Risky assets are over-valued.
Last Updated on Friday, 09 October 2009 02:37
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Morgan Stanley Hedge Fund Forum PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Wednesday, 30 September 2009 10:22

The Morgan Stanley Hedge Fund Forum 2009 was very interesting this year.

Last Updated on Thursday, 01 October 2009 16:40
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Australian property still a bargain PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Tuesday, 15 September 2009 06:32

All property investors love a bargain, and six months ago one was spoilt for choice. Opportunities to buy a dollar of assets for 50 cents - or in some cases, 15 cents - abounded.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 15 September 2009 06:38
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Renewables PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Thursday, 03 September 2009 03:17

Renewable energy will be an investment theme for the foreseeable future, and we are very attuned to some recent developments that have the potential to revolutionise energy production. 

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Is The Equity Bear Market Rally Really Over? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 24 August 2009 04:25

Equity Market Review

Once again equity markets are looking vulnerable.

Last Updated on Monday, 24 August 2009 04:30
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Stock Market Dispersions: European Example PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 17 August 2009 15:29

Here is an analysis of the dispersion of returns in the various sectors of the European equity markets as defined by the Stoxx sub sector indices.

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World Trade 2010 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 15 February 2010 08:07

In the latter part of 2008, the value of world trade plummeted as availability of trade finance evaporated at the same time that global economic growth slowed drastically.

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Equity valuations PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 01 February 2010 06:53

If investment strategy was easy in early 2009, its because it was. Valuations of equities relative to cash or treasuries was at an extreme low making equities highly attractive.

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Obama Bank Plan - Glass Steagall Redux PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Friday, 22 January 2010 12:39

It sounds like a plan. President Obama in an effort to address what is widely believed to be a flawed banking model has decided to ressurrect the Glass Steagall Act 1933.

Last Updated on Saturday, 23 January 2010 06:11
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Conditional Option Trade: Developed and Emerging Market Equities PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 18 January 2010 05:26

Developed market (US say) GDP rises prompting a reversal of quantitative easing, interest rate and fiscal policy. Domestic equities could rise or fall depending on sentiment at the time.

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Regulation of hedge funds in Asia PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 11 January 2010 03:53

The SEC and the FSA are some of the most sophisticated and well resourced regulators in the world. They have to be, they deal with the nice people over on Wall Street and the City. 

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The case for traditional and alternative energy space integration PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Monday, 04 January 2010 07:03

At the December Copenhagen conference on climate change rapidly approaching, all eyes will be on America and China, the world’s two biggest greenhouse gas polluters, which combine to account for 40% of global carbon-dioxide emissions. Their commitment and leadership during the talks will be critical for laying the framework and principles for establishing a successor to Kyoto.

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Hedge Fund Performance 2009 09 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 16 November 2009 04:22

Hedge Fund Performance 2009 09

 

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Hedge Fund Leverage. Too much or too little? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 02 November 2009 15:05

Hedge Fund Leverage. Too much or too little?

Every time there is a hedge fund crisis the subject of leverage comes up. But how does one define leverage in a hedge fund? Is it the same definition you would use for a proprietary trading desk being allocated risk?

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Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 12 October 2009 13:57

In my earlier post of 8 October, I argued that if one had no memory and only asset allocated based on prevailing pricing, equities did not appear overvalued.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 13 October 2009 15:31
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Reality check PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Sunday, 04 October 2009 10:42

With markets roaring ahead and economists muttering about strong growth in the Western economies, one feels a little churlish in pointing out the Panglossian nature of these pronouncements, but we do feel compelled to dwell on a few of the less positive economic issues that seem to have been temporarily forgotten by the newly emboldened investor.

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Where is the S&P500 Going? Another Unscientific Look PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Tuesday, 15 September 2009 07:17

Betting, Outright Gambling on the Stock Market

On 19 Feb 2009 I wrote an article arbitrarily calling for the S&P 500 to bottom at 650. Where is the S&P500 Going? An Unscientific Look.  It bottomed out on 9 Mar 2009 at 676.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 30 September 2009 10:24
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Serial Correlations in Investment Returns PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Tuesday, 08 September 2009 03:50

Autocorrelations:

The investment world loves correlations. Option hedgers love correlations. Everyone loves correlations. Across assets. But how about across time, within the same asset? 

Last Updated on Friday, 11 September 2009 16:21
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Quant Risk Management and Other Fallacies PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Monday, 31 August 2009 08:29

Quant Risk Management

Statistical or mathematical techniques have been used in investment management and finance to better understand risk but there are limitations, sometimes severe limitations.

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Japan Exits Recession: But where to? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bryan Goh   
Thursday, 20 August 2009 02:43

Japan's quarter on quarter GDP growth recorded a 0.90% increase versus consensus estimates of 1.0% and a prior quarter's alarming 3.8% decline. There are several ways to read this.

Last Updated on Thursday, 20 August 2009 02:45
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Chinese wind PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marks@Tiburon   
Friday, 07 August 2009 00:00

The speed at which China is addressing its voracious appetite for energy and dire environmental issues is not being given enough attention.

Last Updated on Thursday, 13 August 2009 01:41
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