Home
The Slowdown in the US Economy. A Temporary Pause. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 30 April 2013 22:26

The US economy is currently in a slowdown. How significant is this?  If we assume that trend growth for GDP is 4%, as was widely believed to be the case pre 2008, then 2.5% GDP growth would have indicated an economy failing to recover fully in its latest cycle, which would be quite negative. If, however, trend growth is 2% as I believe it is in a post 2008 world where the economy is not only no longer fueled by credit creation but also attempting to gradually deleverage itself, then 2.5% growth represents an overshoot, a cyclical high from which the US economy is currently climbing down, and therefore to be expected. It would be indicative of a normal recovery, albeit along a so-called 'new normal' equilibrium path of lower growth. 

Last Updated on Thursday, 02 May 2013 06:59
Read more...
 
Second Quarter 2013: Investment Thoughts PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Sunday, 14 April 2013 12:42

The first quarter of 2013 has ended with risk assets mostly higher than at the end of 2012. It would seem that the optimism that greeted the new year was well placed. Indeed many of the problems in the world have been solved, patched or postponed.

Last Updated on Monday, 15 April 2013 05:05
Read more...
 
Is The Stock Market Rally Sustainable? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 26 March 2013 00:13
  • Inflation is an emerging market problem created in the developed markets.
  • Equities are being boosted by factors other than fundamentals, which is fine.
  • We invest and spend in nominal terms, it pays to stay invested and it costs to not be invested.
  • Uncertainty prolongs trends, consensus ends them. Until bullishness reaches an extreme, the trend will continue.
  • Its not useful to think of equities or companies along national lines. Most businesses are global.
  • Developed markets have an intellectual property advantage. In trade wars, exchange rates are the first salvo. Intellectual property is the next.

Last Updated on Monday, 01 April 2013 02:43
Read more...
 
Equities and Credit: One Correlated Bet? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 19 March 2013 03:55

Today, equities, bonds, FX and most asset classes are driven by one thing. Central bank policy.

Read more...
 
A China Debt Obligation PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 08 March 2013 03:45

In November 2011 I counseled caution on the Chinese economy, expecting a serious slowdown in growth. At the same time, I was concerned about the poorly policed financial system, a concern which has not gone away, despite the recovery in other parts of the Chinese economy. While the Chinese economy has recovered, it remains at risk from a fragile financial system and excessive credit creation.

Read more...
 
The Singapore Housing Market. Contingency Plans. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Sunday, 03 March 2013 10:13

Singapore's property market has surged since 2008 when it had previously halved from the highs of 2007. Low interest rates, easy credit and an influx of foreigners and foreign capital have propelled housing prices in the past 4 years. Money printing in desperate developed markets have also overflowed into capital attractors like Singapore fueling general inflation as well as asset prices.

Read more...
 
Singapore Issues PDF Print E-mail
Written by Regular Zhou   
Sunday, 10 February 2013 00:03

 

Singapore needs new ideas. Growing the economy through growing the population is the easy way out while ignoring he glaring space constraints. In addition, GDP growth alone does not distinguish between the share that goes to households and the share that goes to firms. Moreover, per capita income and consumption are neglected. These are more important metrics to the people of Singapore.

Last Updated on Sunday, 10 February 2013 00:20
Read more...
 
Capital Controls. Inflation. An Eerie Calm PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 28 January 2013 00:14

Asset markets are coiled as tight as a spring, mostly wound up by the spread of quantitative easing of central banks the world over from the US fed to the ECB to the BoJ. Competitive easing is equivalent, or at least has as a collateral strategy, to competitive devaluation. In depressionary economies QE doesn't create the kind of inflation one might expect from the wholesale debasement of currency. However, inflation is already rising even in the weak economies of Europe and Britain. Only in the US is inflation low, suppressed by the shale oil, fracking boom that keeps energy costs, no small part of the CPI, low. Emerging markets are overheating as capital created in the developed markets flows elsewhere. At some point, countries in emerging markets will realize that open capital accounts render them vulnerable to the self interested yet  collectively destructive policies of the West. The case for capital controls may once again arise.

Last Updated on Monday, 28 January 2013 00:35
Read more...
 
The Tyranny of Governments. How Politicians are NOT US. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 11 January 2013 00:53

Britain's MPs have apparently lost the trust of the people. One of the charges leveled against MPs, indeed in any country, is that they are out of touch with society and don't understand the plight of the people. This is patently false. They understand the people alright; they just don't want to be the people.

Last Updated on Friday, 08 February 2013 23:44
Read more...
 
Risk and Damage. Worry 2013 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 08 January 2013 10:09

The VIX index has sunk to remarkably low levels, as has the MOVE index. Yields on bonds from treasuries to investment grade to junk have compressed significantly. The market is now more optimistic about the prospects for a recovery in China, a more robust US housing market and the ability of the Europeans to hold their common currency together. All is well.

Time to worry. Risk is highest in calm waters. Once the iceberg hits, its just damage. The best asset can be priced sufficiently highly to be a poor investment, and the worst asset can be priced sufficiently lowly to be a good investment.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 09 January 2013 03:43
Read more...
 
Misguided Tax Strategy PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 20 December 2012 07:03

In the age old children’s story of persuasion versus force, the sun and the wind compete to remove the traveler’s coat to prove their power. The wind’s efforts only make the man wrap his coat more tightly and securely while the sun’s heat eventually drives the man to voluntarily remove his coat.

Last Updated on Thursday, 20 December 2012 07:04
Read more...
 
Buy Equities Sell Bonds PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 10 December 2012 00:52

The thirst for yield has led to companies raising more debt at cheaper funding levels than before. This has led to a deterioration of credit quality. Of late some companies have been raising debt for share buy backs recognizing the gap between the cost of equity funding and debt funding. This should imply that investors should prefer equities to bonds since the insiders are clearly signaling this through their adjustments to their capital structures and additionally, since debt issuance has increased to the extent that companies have sufficient liquidity for the foreseeable future, risk of default is low and yet leverage has increased, an ideal confluence for equities which can be regarded as a call option on the underlying value of the firm. 

 
The Wide Angle: Agency PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 10 December 2012 00:41

The Wide Angle: 

  • Customers of a company should want to see the employees of the said company buy their own products and services and own shares in the company or at least have a direct link between their compensation and the quality of the products and the satisfaction of the customers. As an employee of a company, I want to diversify my share holdings among my company's competitors and other industries as well. 
  • In some industries, the asymmetry of information between the seller and the buyer of the service is more acute. Examples are financial services, in particular retail financial services. There is the additional problem of institutions which represent systemic risk by being too big to fail. One solution to these problems is to require such institutions to constitute themselves as unlimited liability partnerships.
  • The encouragement to greater scope for risk taking and risk sharing is incompatible with the concept of limited liability. On the one hand economists encourage individuals to take more entrepreneurial risk and on the other they condone limited liability business structures. In fact the limited liability institution is a structure designed to encourage risk taking.
  •  The interests of the shareholder, customer, employee troika is beyond resolution.
 
Fix one thing, break another. Parallels Between 2001 and 2009. Another Credit Bubble. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 05 December 2012 11:39

The Parallel Stages of the Credit Bubble 2001 versus 2009

Last Updated on Sunday, 09 December 2012 23:52
Read more...
 
Collecting Luxury Watches PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 30 November 2012 01:14

You never really own a Patek Philippe, you merely look after it for the next generation. It has been one of the most successful advertising slogans ever. It appeals to our vanity, yet tempers it, it appeals to our immortality, yet reminds us of our mortality, it panders to our hopes for our progeny, yet gets us to buy today, and by suggesting an element of investment for the future it makes us less price sensitive and willing to move up the complication and price point curve.

Read more...
 
How Dependent Is The Economy On Low Interest Rates? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 19 April 2013 22:50

Corporate balance sheets have been significantly repaired since the crisis of 2008. On the other hand, sovereign balance sheets became and remain in poor condition. Most countries have addressed this problem by instituting programs of debt monetization with, as an associated bonus feature, artificially low interest rates across the relevant term structure.

Last Updated on Saturday, 20 April 2013 00:30
Read more...
 
Ransom the European Financial System. Buy Italian Banks PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 02 April 2013 05:17

The cool thing about the Euro is that it doesn't really work, and yet, the politicians in Europe insist on having it. This creates periodic buying opportunities. Here is an indirect Euro 'we'll hold it together come hell or high water' trade.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 02 April 2013 05:36
Read more...
 
Deposit Insurance: How To Protect Your Money The Alternative Way PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 21 March 2013 07:56

When you keep your money in a bank, you are basically a general creditor to a business that is typically leveraged by about 10 X to 50 X, even today after the deleveraging post 2008.  Fortunately, most countries have some form of deposit insurance. Unfortunately, the guarantees are limited. In the Eurozone, which includes Cyprus for example, the limit of deposit insurance is 100,000 EUR. In Switzerland, it is 100,000 CHF, in the UK it is 85,000 GBP, in Hong Kong it is 500,000 HKD, in the US it is 250,000 USD and in Singapore it is 50,000 SGD. That’s not a lot.

Last Updated on Thursday, 21 March 2013 07:59
Read more...
 
Economic War: Trade wars, currency wars and intellectual property wars. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 08 March 2013 13:24

 

When the pie shrinks, people are less likely to share. It was clear back in early 2011 that with successive rounds or quantitative easing and debt monetization rotating through the world's central banks, that eventually a trade war would develop. With the consumer demoralized, businesses cautious and governments broke, exports would be the last desperate hope for many countries seeking to grow their way out of voluntary and involuntary austerity. And so country after country, both net creditor and net debtor began to print money in an effort to either monetize a debt pile grown too big or to improve their terms of trade or both. Equal success in the former and equal failure in the latter has brought the phoney war to the surface. Japan's once and new prime minister was firs to break the deadlock, sending the JPY into a downward spiral that today worries her trading partners but which tomorrow may worry the Japanese themselves as unforeseen consequences and diminishing returns to policy set in.

Last Updated on Monday, 11 March 2013 03:54
Read more...
 
Singapore Car Loans. Imprudent Banking Practices PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Tuesday, 05 March 2013 00:06

Until a week ago it was possible to buy a car in Singapore with a 10% down payment and a 10 year loan. Cars are acutely expensive a shortage of land (Singapore is a tiny island at the foot of Malaysia) has necessitated the rationing of cars through a quota system. The rationing requires car buyers to first buy a 10 year right to operate a car called a certificate of entitlement or COE. COEs are auctioned monthly with supply based on the number of cars being de-registered that month plus an acceptable growth rate. This idiosyncratic system has led to wild swings in COE prices, mostly to the upside, resulting in Singapore having the most expensive cars in the world. As an example, an Audi A6 in Singapore would cost the same as a Ferrari 458 Italia in London.

Last Updated on Thursday, 08 August 2013 05:20
Read more...
 
Pension Model PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Saturday, 16 February 2013 07:43

 

The ideal pension would be a defined benefit scheme whereby workers would be required to contribute a minimum portion of their earnings into a pension scheme. The assets of this pension scheme would be held in custody on behalf of the worker.

Last Updated on Saturday, 16 February 2013 07:59
Read more...
 
US Economic Growth 2012 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 30 January 2013 23:53
  • US 2012 Q4 growth was -0.1% which surprised most analysts who expected at least slow to moderate growth. While disappointing, this is no cause for alarm.
  • Inventory draw downs shaved 1.3% off GDP growth. Worries about the fiscal cliff in the 4th quarter of 2012 tempered business expectations and investment.
  • Defense spending and government cutbacks accounted for a further 1.3% shortfall in growth. The rollback from 2 major areas of conflict and the need to reduce government debt will only reinforce this trend.
  • Seasonal weather effects such as Hurricane Sandy on the Eastern Seaboard also detracted from growth.
  • Without the decline in government spending and inventory destocking, GDP growth would have been a healthy +2.5%, above the post crisis long term equilibrium rate of circa 2%.
  • On the positive side consumption and business investment remain robust. Consumption growth has accelerated to 2.2% helped by increased household after tax income. Household's debt service, that is, debt payments as a percentage of disposal income has fallen sharply from 14% in 2007 to 10.6% today on the back of lower interest rates and debt repayment. Debt outstanding to personal income has also fallen.
  • Employment appears to be recovering albeit at a glacial pace. US productivity is improving.
  • The housing market continues a steady recovery. House building grew at over 15% accelerating from 13.5% in the prior quarter.  The November reading of the Case Shiller 20 City home index accelerated to a 5.5% increase in November from a prior 4.2% increase in October. 
Last Updated on Wednesday, 30 January 2013 23:57
Read more...
 
The Origination and Distribution of Intellectual Property and Implications for Growth PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 21 January 2013 00:46

‘We think of it, we build it, we buy it.’ This all works nicely until the economy reaches its speed limits and potential. Then the economy overheats and prices rise more quickly. The limits of an economy can be extended by trade and specialization where productive capacity is exported to areas or countries with cheap labour to bring down costs and relieve capacity constraints.

Read more...
 
The True Cost of the Euro PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 10 January 2013 00:08

With the ECB warrantying that it will be lender of last resort to Euro zone governments it seems that the risk of a break up of the Euro is no longer. Be that as if may, as each day passes the cost of maintaining the Euro becomes more and more apparent. The charge is not one of market turmoil, sovereign funding cost, financial sector imbalances or fiscal discipline but a more fundamental issue of price discovery and factor and goods market equilibrium. If a single currency is to persist, domestic prices of all things, goods, services and inputs, need to be flexible so that markets clear. Yet we know that for various reasons wages tend to be sticky upwards, that is, wages are easier to raise than to lower. Labour laws and unions are the main reasons for this asymmetry of wage friction. As a result, the labour market fails to clear and we have Euro zone unemployment close to 12% with youth unemployment substantially higher and Club Med countries running at double the zone's average.

Last Updated on Thursday, 10 January 2013 00:14
Read more...
 
Investment Strategy 2013. Q&A With Burnham Banks PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Thursday, 27 December 2012 02:04

Q&A with Burnham Banks

Last Updated on Friday, 01 March 2013 02:44
Read more...
 
Investment Review 2012. Investment Outlook 2013. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 12 December 2012 02:56

Model Portfolio and Strategy Review:


 

It's time to review our investment outlook and strategy for 2013. It is remarkable how have arbitrary time intervals when we review and make our plans but that is how we humans have chosen to behave and so any study in human behavior or endeavor should reasonably respect these arbitrary wavelengths. We begin with a review of the investment strategy for 2012.

Last Updated on Monday, 17 December 2012 00:35
Read more...
 
Even Regulators and Investment Professionals Don't Get Hedge Funds PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Monday, 10 December 2012 00:50

Hedge funds don't make investors rich, they preserve the wealth of the investor who is already rich. Most hedge funds are aware of and carefully manage downside risk and volatility. Long only mutual funds have benchmarks to which they tend to cling. A volatile benchmark can seriously injure an investor's portfolio.

Read more...
 
Please Don't Invest In Hedge Funds. You'll Crowd Me Out. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Sunday, 09 December 2012 23:50

I discourage investors from investing in anything they don't understand. Hedge funds are fairly complex as far as investment strategies go, so I often discourage investors from investing in them unless they are sufficiently knowledgeable. If they want to invest in hedge funds, I tend to steer them towards funds of hedge funds or asset managers who run portfolios of hedge funds, professional hedge fund investors who can help with due diligence and portfolio construction.

Last Updated on Monday, 10 December 2012 00:32
Read more...
 
Being Too Bearish? The Next Bubble. PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Wednesday, 05 December 2012 03:48

I've not taken my own advice lately and have been too bearish on risk assets. Entirely my fault for ascribing more weight to fundamentals than I normally do.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 05 December 2012 08:34
Read more...
 
Capital Gains and Long Term Investing PDF Print E-mail
Written by Burnham Banks   
Friday, 30 November 2012 01:02

Capital gains tax should be reduced over the life of an investment. This creates an incentive for long term investment and discourages short term trading. Every year that an investment is kept, there should be a 10% discount on the capital gains tax payable on that investment so that an investment that is held for 10 years attracts no capital gains tax. A similar principal would apply to losses eligible for offset against income or profits. Such loss offsets would decay similarly.

Last Updated on Friday, 30 November 2012 01:05
Read more...
 
<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Next > End >>

Page 2 of 8

Featured Articles

LexisNexis Corporate & Securities Law Community 2011 Top 50 Blogs



Who's Online

We have 31 guests online

© hedged.biz 2009