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A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

Don’t Stand So Close To Me. (With apologies to Mr Gordon Sumner.)

This morning The wire The cases multiply It’s catching No escape now This thing could almost fly He’s shaking He’s coughing  They look him up and down Where was this utter stranger He came from out of town.  Don’t stand Don’t stand so Don’t stand so close to me The city’s so quiet Only the
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The Outlook Under The Shadow of COVID 19

The Outlook Under The Shadow of COVID 19 7 Apr 2020   How is 2020 different from 2008? 2008 was a US housing crisis distributed globally by the banking system. US housing was overvalued and over leveraged. The mortgages they supported had weak underwriting and credit standards. Banks from Europe and Asia had entered the
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COVID19 Investment Strategy Response. General non Specific.

Even assuming one had lots of cash to invest, its not easy. Liquid markets like equities and bonds are volatile and sentiment driven. There may be a quick recovery or another leg to the crisis. A more tractable approach is to seek structural instabilities. We seek opportunities in the shadow banking system, especially those parts
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COVID 19, Contagion, Economic Consequences and Risks. 2020 03.

Contagion At the time of writing, the COVID 19 pandemic is well underway. At the end of January, there were almost 12 thousand cases, mostly in China. Now, just two months later, there are over 150 thousand cases, with the highest growth rates outside China. After China, Europe has become the new focus of contagion.
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COVID 19 and Recession. Mitigating The Economic Cost.

It is becoming evident that if not the virus, the response to it, will cause recession. Fighting the virus is the responsibility of health authorities, not central banks and treasuries. Treasuries can help financially of course. Central banks and treasuries should concentrate on mitigating the economic costs of the virus and our containment measures. There
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