HEDGED.BIZ

A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

Two models of inflation and interest rates

I’ve written about this elsewhere, always part of a wider survey of inflation and rates, but I really need to record this in one place now as it may be important later. The Gibson Paradox observes that rates and inflation seem to be positively related more than can be explained by lag effects. I therefore
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Ten Seconds Into The Future 2022 10

Current Observations: On the positive side of the ledger: Economic growth is still strong. Household & bank balance sheets are strong. Corporate balance sheets are fairly strong. Fiscal policy is still fairly expansionary. Green capex momentum is strong. Equities are fairly valued. On the negative side: Inflation is persistent. Central banks are tightening. Governments are
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UK Mini Budget 2022

I was trawling around London soliciting views mostly from the main beneficiaries of the Chancellor’s tax cuts announced 23 September. How? Why? What? The problem with the budget is not that it doesn’t make sense, we can make anything sensible given enough experts’ opinions. The problem was marketing, communications, governance, those sorts of inconveniences. A
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Investing Responsibly and Thoughtfully. ESG and all that.

ESG investing has been an excellent growth opportunity for the investment industry to demonstrate innovation and introduce new products and services. For investors seeking to obtain both purpose and returns, the experience has been mixed. I believe that the human species seeks to make things better, that we are inherently good, even if our efforts
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ECB in a pickle. How about a Eurosystem CDO? Or restart unconditional LTROs

June 15, 2022. The ECB called a special meeting to discuss surging bond yields of peripheral member states. With the inflation problem in Europe, you would have thought the ECB would have welcomed higher rates. Not so. The ECB has a very difficult task. It needs to maintain financial and economic stability, keeping a lid
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