HEDGED.BIZ

A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

Inflation and Secular Stagnation. Causes and Remedies.

Why is inflation so low? Why is economic growth so slow despite the efforts of central banks and governments? One possible view of the world: The identity MV = PQ is, precisely that, an identity. So as central banks inflate the money supply, why does growth not accelerate, and prices not rise? It must be
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Ten Seconds Into The Future 2020 07

A detailed discussion is too long to fit in the margin, so without justification or validation, here are some forecasts.  During the COVID lockdowns, schools have been shut and are struggling to reopen. This cohort of students face disruptions to their education which could lead to a future shortage of skilled labour. Labour costs may
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Thoughts About FX. USD vs RMB.

The basic and easy stuff USD will be strong for the foreseeable future. USD is a haven currency and as the economic crisis persists or matures, preference for USD will remain. USD remains the settlement currency of choice for the vast majority of international trade. The US economy is the strongest and is expected to
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Deflation Then Inflation

At this time of COVID19 pandemic, social and economic disruption and recession, I can see instantaneous deflation due to the demand shock, but I also see a longer term trend of rising prices. This could present investment opportunities, and risks, and would certainly complicate monetary policy. Given the acute reduction in demand, deflation is the more
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A Recovery Investment Strategy for COVID19

Recovery Investment Strategy This recovery investment strategy should not be one’s entire investment strategy. A diversified asset allocation driven strategy should remain the core of the whole strategy. However, a dedicated strategy to address the current dislocations and distress can not only be profitable but provide capital where it is needed. This investment strategy seeks
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