ECB to disappoint. Lagarde expects fiscal policy to do the lifting.
Wednesday, 11 September 2019 | 8:30 am
I’ve been of the view, like so many other investors, that the would be dovish and a) launch LTRO early, b) cut rates, and c) do some form of QE (the market thinks outright QE, I thought unconstrained LTRO.) This view has led me to be long EUR duration from Bunds to Italian and Portuguese
- Published in Articles
No Comments
Inequality
Monday, 26 August 2019 | 4:29 pm
Inequality has reached acutely high levels. There are costs. The most fundamental impact of inequality as it reaches this level of wealth concentration, (over 40% of the world’s wealth is owned by the top 1% of the population and over 80% of the world’s wealth is owned by the top 10% of the population), is
- Published in Articles
Recession yes, but not from the Inverted Yield Curve
Thursday, 15 August 2019 | 7:53 am
I don’t know how yield curves get inverted but when they do, recessions tend to follow after. Why? Banks borrow short term and lend longer term and an inverted curve means that the bank credit market fails to clear. It results in a credit shortage which chokes off growth. We will still get our recession,
- Published in Articles
China US Trade War, Trade – War
Tuesday, 02 July 2019 | 11:17 am
I have argued since 2013 that the world had been in a trade war since at least 2009, perhaps 2007. This war was fought at various times in the FX theatre and through the re-shoring of manufacturing. Re-shoring represented a reorganization of global supply chains to locate them in the countries of the parent companies.
- Published in Articles
A Very Simplified Market Outlook 2019 2H
Thursday, 27 June 2019 | 3:19 pm
Economic outlook Growth is slowing. After ten years of expansion, it is to be expected that the global economy should slow down. The slowdown is very tangible in Europe, is evident in China and rest of Asia, and in the US is showing early but significant signs. The Trade War is a drag on growth.
- Published in Articles