HEDGED.BIZ

A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

The Fool.

There once was a fool who prized being right above being rich. He placed his bets to hedge the pain he might suffer for his failings and, fool that he was, was more often right than wrong, and therefore succeeded in being more right than rich.  
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Two models of inflation and interest rates

I’ve written about this elsewhere, always part of a wider survey of inflation and rates, but I really need to record this in one place now as it may be important later. The Gibson Paradox observes that rates and inflation seem to be positively related more than can be explained by lag effects. I therefore
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Ten Seconds Into The Future 2022 10

Current Observations: On the positive side of the ledger: Economic growth is still strong. Household & bank balance sheets are strong. Corporate balance sheets are fairly strong. Fiscal policy is still fairly expansionary. Green capex momentum is strong. Equities are fairly valued. On the negative side: Inflation is persistent. Central banks are tightening. Governments are
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UK Mini Budget 2022

I was trawling around London soliciting views mostly from the main beneficiaries of the Chancellor’s tax cuts announced 23 September. How? Why? What? The problem with the budget is not that it doesn’t make sense, we can make anything sensible given enough experts’ opinions. The problem was marketing, communications, governance, those sorts of inconveniences. A
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Investing Responsibly and Thoughtfully. ESG and all that.

ESG investing has been an excellent growth opportunity for the investment industry to demonstrate innovation and introduce new products and services. For investors seeking to obtain both purpose and returns, the experience has been mixed. I believe that the human species seeks to make things better, that we are inherently good, even if our efforts
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