HEDGED.BIZ

A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

Investment Outlook Update 2018 08

It is difficult to ignore the short term trends and volatility but I will give it a try. In few other disciplines does luck or chance play a bigger part of the outcome than in investing. The shorter the time frame, the more chance plays a part in the outcome. The longer the time frame,
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Open and Shut: Immigration

Open: Immigration is good for the economy. Unless the allocation of resources is already optimal everywhere, a redistribution of resources (human in this context) can increase the wealth and welfare of the collective. Workers moving from a poor country to a rich one become more productive as they are combined with more and better capital,
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Finance. A Misallocation of Resources?

Hard data is scarce and noisy but according to estimates by the World Bank and OECD, the financial sector accounts for 20-30% of GDP in developed countries. The IMF estimates that total global nominal GDP is some 77.6 trillion dollars of which financial services account for 13.1 trillion dollars or 16%. What services does the
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Trump Kim Summit in Singapore. China The Big Winner.

On 12 Jun 2018, US President Donald Trump met with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore in what was hailed as a historic meeting. The document the two leaders signed state the following: The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new US-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples
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The US Labour Market is Tight. Participation Rates Explained.

Average hourly earnings are growing at 2.7% YOY, well below the 3.6% growth rates seen pre crisis 2008. The unemployment rate has fallen steadily from 10% during the crisis to 3.8%. The JOLTS Quits Rate (which measures voluntary quits, presumably in search of better prospects) has risen steadily since 2009 to 2.3%, near its post
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