Ten Seconds Into the Future. History.
Monday, 06 December 2021 | 6:00 pm
Perhaps history is inevitably punctuated by crises. Life naturally grows until interrupted by environmental, social or political crises when the number of hosts, inhabitants or combatants is decimated, halting the crisis, and setting the stage for a potential but by no means guaranteed recovery. There is an optimal population size below which collaboration leads to
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Macro Themes and Thoughts September 2021.
Tuesday, 14 September 2021 | 3:39 pm
Growth. Likely to slow from the high pace of recovery. + Base effects. + Diminishing marginal returns to policy. Also, the need to reset policy to mitigate future crises. + Substitution from efficiency to robustness. + energy transition may cause loss in efficiency. – Innovation in artificial intelligence, energy efficiency, supply chain optimization
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China Regulatory Crackdown. Market Interference or Healthy Pruning?
Tuesday, 10 August 2021 | 9:53 am
China is conducting regulation to address market failures in the free market economy Education has to provide all an equal start. Data protection addresses the question of who owns their own data, people or platforms. Monopolies have to be regulated so that price falls between marginal and average costs. This is the compromise forgotten by
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Market Timing. Impossible and Important all at once.
Monday, 15 February 2021 | 10:43 am
Most investment professionals will tell you market timing is impossible. Now I am saying that not only is it impossible, it is important as well. Simplistically, the last time we saw stock valuations this high (S&P500 at 26X) was in 1999. If you invested then in the S&P500, and held on for 12 years, until
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Information Efficiency and Firm Size. Implications for Growth.
Monday, 15 February 2021 | 9:22 am
The picture of free markets and decentralized decision making is somewhat misleading. Companies are not democracies but highly organized and often hierarchical structures. Companies interact with one another and with their customers in a free market. Today’s capitalist economies look more like collections or coalitions of centralized control communicating with one another in a free
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