HEDGED.BIZ

A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

Thoughts after 2 weeks Off The Grid. November 2019.

Equity markets have made new highs while bond markets have stalled. Economic data are mixed following months of signs of slowing. India’s economy has slowed drastically, China’s slowdown seems to have moderated, Europe still looks weak albeit the data seems to have stopped deteriorating and the US economy seems to have firmed from prior weakness.
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Thoughts From The Bar Stool…

Readers of this blog will be aware that I have been bearish about global economic and political conditions for some time now. Yet I find things to buy. I leave for my vacation and will return in 2 weeks and will endeavor to monitor news and markets as little as possible. But befor e I
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Inequality. QE. Trade War and More.

Populists may be wrong in their prescriptions, but they are not wrong in their prognoses. Inequality If it feels like inequality, it probably is. 1% of the world’s population hold 47% of its wealth. To qualify, they must have at least 700,000 USD in assets. The share of wealth of the top 1% has been
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Bad news is good. Bad news is bad. Which one holds is arbitrary.

In recent times equity and credit markets have reacted to bad news with optimism, reasoning that weaker economic data would encourage the central banks to cut rates which would in turn boost the economy and support higher asset valuations. This is a perverse logic but one that supports trillions of dollars in investments. This year,
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A little change is coming…

Fiscal policy will join monetary policy in the fight against stagnation. 10 years of loose monetary policy has inflated assets while failing to raise growth or inflation. Orthodoxy is slowly pivoting towards fiscal policy. The textbook dangers of unlimited monetary and fiscal support are, excessive and rising national debt and the eventual loss of confidence
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