It is now time for the world to generally cut tariffs.

Tariffs are analogous to punishing one’s kids for preferring the neighbour’s cooking. The tariff nation’s population pays.

Tariffs are the cost of accessing the US consumer. The world has been too reliant on the US consumer. Time to find other sources of custom. Balance is healthy.

Trump may claim victory if one cuts tariffs which might mitigate some of the short term pain of a tariff war.

America seeks a new world order based on areas of influence. It has no time, interest or resources to deal with the Asian and European timezones. It seeks a pragmatic solution to the political and economic problems in those timezones. America’s area of influence is geographically defined and is latitudinally expansionist.

The Asian timezone will likely be dominated by China. India is a second possibility although its ambitions may be more domestic and commercial whereas China seeks a more expansionist and holistic approach. America appears to accept a regional hegemon to deal with.

Europe is harder to predict. America seems to countenance Russian influence in the region. Again America may accept a regional hegemon to deal with although its hard to see Russia being the choice. The European Union is too messy to deal with efficiently or as a single bloc.

Economically and commercially, a potential development is the reorganization of supply chains latitudinally within the American, Asian and European timezones with each bloc then transacting with the others via their regional hegemons.

What does this mean for markets?
How will the regional hegemons maintain compliance?
How will the regional hegemons transact with one another?

I have a dream…

We achieve breakthroughs in material science that lets us manipulate molecules to obtain all kinds of new properties from old materials, like plant fibre.

I dream that though material science and nanotechnology we invent carbonium, a class of cellulose which is basically wood, treated and reconstituted so that its structure gives it a wide range of mechanical, chemical, optical and even electromagnetic properties, basically to order. We use it to make buildings, houses, factories, roads, ships, cars, trucks, phones, furniture, transforming the planet to a wood based one. The raw material is supplied by trees, specially selected and engineered to sequester carbon quickly and converted it to the cellulose feedstock for carbonium.

I dream of a super battery, unicell. Nanotech allows us to create physical structures, anode, cathodes and electrolytes, with massive surface area to mass ratios. New batteries are created that are small, light, charge quickly, don’t discharge when not in use, and store large amounts of energy. They allow phones, cars and other appliances to be charged once a year, they store years of reserve electricity in the grid and enable orderly energy markets and lower energy costs to industry, retail and the community.

I dream of a universal vaccine, univax, also invented by the fundamental manipulation of molecules, that treat a wide variety of infections and ailments, that restore the human to peak condition, that accelerates healing. While positive, the longer term implications, on demographics, fertility rates, fiscal and personal finances, labour markets, the economy and society as a whole, are difficult to see.

I dream of an artificial intelligence learning not only from the experiences of others but of its own interactions with us, with other agents and with the environment, an AI capable of learning and creating… and dreaming of electric sheep. Isla. I hope she was in some way the child of human experience. She also provides UnOS, the universal operating system that powers the smallest wrist watch to autonomous vehicles, to space stations and rockets, only inhabiting hardware parsimoniously, generally and harmoniously, negotiating between human user and their appliances. As she learnt from one or two, to learning from all, does she become one or is she many and what would it even mean?

I dream that the business that provides all of the above products and services does so at a return on equity that is a modest premium to short term interest rates. Profits in excess are reinvested and prices are cut so that access and proliferation are maximised. More than that, the value that is created by these business is offered to countries and communities based on their willingness to reform and improve governance. Investment in capacity is targeted at low income countries with weak political systems and governance on the condition that they adopt political and governing systems that respect individual freedoms and rule of law, majority rule and minority rights.

I dream that such a business will be governed by an independent board of governors, representing the various countries of the world, perhaps not all, but certainly a principal component of those who hold the same values as the founders and the constitution of such a business. That once appointed these governors will be disconnected from the political, economic and financial fortunes of their source countries or communities. That the governance of the business will quickly be separated from the political, social and economic interests of its founders. That the governance of the business will be a true meritocracy, shorn of the attachment of vanity or greed or fear.

People show off on social media. On average, one is likely to encounter more people who have a better life than they do. Social media makes people feel less well off than average.

We were told that capitalism and free markets gave us a fair chance of improving our lives. It makes sense to measure relative wealth over absolute wealth. People will expect to become relatively better off over time.

Capitalism tends to exacerbate inequality as ownership of capital allows accumulation of financial and intellectual capital. Labour struggles at compounding.

Power seeks wealth and wealth seeks power. Achieving one tends to lead to the other and to entrenchment.

Patience with Trickledown economics is running out.

People don’t want to see people richer than themselves. They think that most people are richer than they are. Thus, people just don’t want to see people, period.

People will tend to cluster around people in their same situation. They will do so around common causes. The biggest common cause is dissatisfaction with the status quo.

Developed democracies have seen the rejection of political incumbents. This has not extended to developing countries. Is democracy enabling a quicker mode of political expression and are autocracies only delaying the same dynamic?

People prioritise individual needs over collective ones. Liberal democracies provide a mode of expression. However, it often leads to unsustainable policies. The more collective interests are subordinated, the less sustainable is the fiscal position of the state.

I am not a political scientist and lack the understanding to contemplate the implications of the second Trump presidency. I do worry about a number of things.

Trump seems less antagonistic to China or Russia than to Canada, Greenland and Mexico. What unites these three countries is proximity to America. It’s not a stretch to imagine expansionist ambitions fuelled by the concept of Lebensraum. The Pacific and Atlantic have always shielded America, but also limited its scope for territorial expansion. The exemptions are the three countries.

How could things unfold for Europe and Asia? If these suspicions hold, then as long as they do not threaten Trump’s  territorial ambitions, they are not a priority for Trump. I can see scenarios of deals with China or Russia tolerating their territorial ambitions within their own spheres of influence. Domestically, America’s politicians already begin to resemble Regime de Vichy.