On July 2 I wrote that I expected Greece to vote Yes in the referendum. I expected the Greeks to vote in favour of anything that would restart the ATMs and get cash flowing through the banking system once again. As it turns, the Greeks voted no. Why did I and many professional investors expect

  Greece will conduct a referendum on July 5 regarding a creditor plan of reorganization. The referendum is framed as a Yes/No vote to either accept or reject the creditors’ proposals. 1. The vote as it is framed is strictly about accepting or rejecting the creditor proposal. However, the consequences of either a Yes or

I was undecided before but the rhetoric from Berlin has now convinced me that for once, Merkel and Tsipras agree. They both want the Greek people to vote No in the July 5 referendum on creditors’ terms. Greece has been on explicit financial aid since the first bailout in 2010. In 2015, since Syriza won

Long term positive China on reform and liquidity. Medium term volatility from valuations and IPO issuance.   There are reasons to be optimistic about the Chinese economy in the long run due to structural reform. Current growth rates will slow but China is reorganizing itself to a more durable model. Political reform, notably the leaning

When we buy an equity or a bond we buy a claim on a business but with differing payoffs, rights and obligations. The rational investor would first decide if the business in question was something they wanted to own before deciding on whether to own it through the equity or the debt. If indeed the