I don’t know how yield curves get inverted but when they do, recessions tend to follow after. Why? Banks borrow short term and lend longer term and an inverted curve means that the bank credit market fails to clear. It results in a credit shortage which chokes off growth. We will still get our recession,

I have argued since 2013 that the world had been in a trade war since at least 2009, perhaps 2007. This war was fought at various times in the FX theatre and through the re-shoring of manufacturing. Re-shoring represented a reorganization of global supply chains to locate them in the countries of the parent companies.

Economic outlook Growth is slowing. After ten years of expansion, it is to be expected that the global economy should slow down. The slowdown is very tangible in Europe, is evident in China and rest of Asia, and in the US is showing early but significant signs. The Trade War is a drag on growth.

The history of our planet is replete with extinctions. As our planet’s environment and conditions evolve, and as the various species which live upon it evolve, speciation and extinctions occur. At the point of writing there are an estimated 8.7 million different types of life forms of which animals number between 1 to 2 million

Following a pretty bad final quarter in 2018, markets had a good first quarter 2019. The reasons for the rebound included a) the fact that markets overreacted in 2018 to growth fears and the US Fed sending too hawkish a signal, and  b) the US Fed retracting its hawkish message and aligning with the Chinese