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June 18, 2025

Author: Burnham Banks

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US Debt Ceiling and Probability of Default. Almost Never.

Wednesday, 02 October 2013 | 2:02 am by Burnham Banks
  Oct 17 is D Day. If the debt ceiling is not raised, there is the possibility of a US default. The consequences are quite catastrophic, to such an extent that it is almost inconceivable that the US treasury will allow it to happen, despite the combined efforts of the Democrats and Republicans. Why is
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The Regulation of Banks, the Shadow Banking System and implications for Alpha Investment Strategies

Friday, 27 September 2013 | 3:15 am by Burnham Banks
  Since the financial crisis of 2008 it was patently clear that regulators would begin to regulate banks as utilities. Since then there has been a steady and gradual reanimation of the Glass-Steagall act, albeit not in a single legislation; this in a series of fragmented but correlated measures including Basel 3, Solvency 2, Dodd-Frank
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Tactical and Temporary Retreat. Tapering US equity exposure

Tuesday, 24 September 2013 | 2:17 am by Burnham Banks
  Good investment and trading practice is that you always have a thesis and the thesis implies certain milestones, and profit and loss levels. If the milestones are not met, and the thesis is unchanged, even if profit targets are met or exceeded, one should reassess the trade, preferably cutting it while the reassessment is
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Bullish Europe Risk Assets

Wednesday, 18 September 2013 | 1:04 am by Burnham Banks
  We began to be bullish US equities 14 Oct 2011. On 13 Jan 2012, we called a buy on Europe across all risk assets on the back of the ECB’s unprecedented 3 year repo facility. This was a bit early and required the investor to sit through quite a lot of volatility. Some would
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Fear Not QE Tapering

Tuesday, 10 September 2013 | 12:25 am by Burnham Banks
Do not fear QE tapering. Its a good thing. 1. Its a sign of strength, that the economy is able to tolerate tighter monetary conditions. 2. US treasury issuance is falling as a result of improving economic growth and thus tax receipts. If the Fed maintains its purchases as a proportion of issuance, it would
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Ten Seconds Into The Future

“Hello. I’m Burnham Banks and I studied economics in the late 80s and early 90s. I’m still studying economics today and am still no wiser. This blog is a journal, a record of my thoughts and experiences. If we are destined to repeat our mistakes, we should at least repeat them faithfully. If not, then perhaps the past is a mischievous guide and we should try something new.”

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