The low inflation and low interest rate environment that we experienced in the last 20 years was only possible as inflation was exported away to low cost producer countries. This is equivalent to offshoring production capacity. It must therefore lead to a trade deficit, if it is successful. We know on hindsight that it has

  What are investors worried about? There is a lot to worry about but there are usually two to three factors that really drive sentiment.

Inflation and the internal purchasing power of money:   On the surface there appears to be no inflation in the US. 1.1% YOY inflation is neither too high nor too low. However, given the state of growth in the economy, central bank policy, fiscal strength or lack thereof, the risk of deflation has become a

As the US increasingly moves closer to becoming a net exporter, by intent and also since the PBoC and BoJ are reducing vendor financing in the form of purchasing US treasuries, the US current account may move into surplus against China and Japan. This would mean a shortage of USD to recycle which would mean

Last week end I was walking down Bond Street when I came to the Hermes shop. Nice clothes, nice bags, nice scarves, nice long queues at the till, and with a clientele that isn’t as predominantly Asian as LVMH. I’m not sure I would buy the clothes, JP Gaultier has just quit womenswear, the menswear