14 July:   It’s not over. The deal agreed by the Eurogroup with Greece will need the creditor parliaments and the Greek parliament to vote and approve before the governors of ESM can approve it. The Greeks will likely approve it although Tsipras 149 votes will likely not all be yes, it is expected some

On June 26, had Greece agreed to these terms a deal would have been done. Instead Tsipras calls a referendum and seeks a No vote from his people. Before the vote, Tsipras goes back to the Eurogroup to accept the terms. Merkel says that they have to wait for the referendum since Tsipras would, in

On July 2 I wrote that I expected Greece to vote Yes in the referendum. I expected the Greeks to vote in favour of anything that would restart the ATMs and get cash flowing through the banking system once again. As it turns, the Greeks voted no. Why did I and many professional investors expect

  Greece will conduct a referendum on July 5 regarding a creditor plan of reorganization. The referendum is framed as a Yes/No vote to either accept or reject the creditors’ proposals. 1. The vote as it is framed is strictly about accepting or rejecting the creditor proposal. However, the consequences of either a Yes or

I was undecided before but the rhetoric from Berlin has now convinced me that for once, Merkel and Tsipras agree. They both want the Greek people to vote No in the July 5 referendum on creditors’ terms. Greece has been on explicit financial aid since the first bailout in 2010. In 2015, since Syriza won