We began to be bullish US equities 14 Oct 2011. On 13 Jan 2012, we called a buy on Europe across all risk assets on the back of the ECB’s unprecedented 3 year repo facility. This was a bit early and required the investor to sit through quite a lot of volatility. Some would

Do not fear QE tapering. Its a good thing. 1. Its a sign of strength, that the economy is able to tolerate tighter monetary conditions. 2. US treasury issuance is falling as a result of improving economic growth and thus tax receipts. If the Fed maintains its purchases as a proportion of issuance, it would

Its all rather confusing. But not any more so than usual. Things are always confusing in the present and clear in the past. What is confusing today, are the number and strength of the conflicting signals. We therefore consider, in broad summary, the bull and bear cases for general conditions. 

Is Caterpillar a US company or a Latin American one, or a European one, or an Asian one? Is Santander Spanish, British, or Latin American? Is Alstom French, or Nestle Swiss, or HSBC British, or Chinese? Are any of the large listed Swiss companies Swiss? When we say equities are cheap and bonds expensive, to

Concepts like volatility and correlation can be hard to visualize or grasp intuitively. I sometimes like to think simplistically about complicated matters. The insights gained are often far from simplistic. Hedge funds are unfortunately, a complicated subject, and try as one might, it is difficult to reduce the complexity of the issues. One of the