The first quarter of 2013 has ended with risk assets mostly higher than at the end of 2012. It would seem that the optimism that greeted the new year was well placed. Indeed many of the problems in the world have been solved, patched or postponed.

The cool thing about the Euro is that it doesn’t really work, and yet, the politicians in Europe insist on having it. This creates periodic buying opportunities. Here is an indirect Euro ‘we’ll hold it together come hell or high water’ trade.

Inflation is an emerging market problem created in the developed markets. Equities are being boosted by factors other than fundamentals, which is fine. We invest and spend in nominal terms, it pays to stay invested and it costs to not be invested. Uncertainty prolongs trends, consensus ends them. Until bullishness reaches an extreme, the trend

When you keep your money in a bank, you are basically a general creditor to a business that is typically leveraged by about 10 X to 50 X, even today after the deleveraging post 2008.  Fortunately, most countries have some form of deposit insurance. Unfortunately, the guarantees are limited. In the Eurozone, which includes Cyprus

Today, equities, bonds, FX and most asset classes are driven by one thing. Central bank policy.