Volatility Is Back From Extended Vacation. Market Crash. Buy Opportunity?
Tuesday, 25 August 2015 | 9:47 am
If you sold in May and went away you’d have been back in July, re-established positions and got your throat slit in August. The S&P and broad equity market benchmarks have lost some 10% in a week, most of it in a couple of days, Europe has done slight worse, down some 12%, and China,
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The Fed Cannot Not Raise Interest Rates This Year. It Has Backed Itself Into A Corner.
Monday, 24 August 2015 | 12:15 am
The fact that the Fed Funds effective rate is 15 bps and not 25 bps is reason enough not to raise rates. Central banks should refrain from moving rates about as they see fit. For one, their understanding of the economy is no better than anyone else’s. How can one make interest rate policy amid
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Investing in China. 2015 and Beyond.
Friday, 21 August 2015 | 12:47 am
Discretion is the better part of valor. I began the year still bullish on China domestic equity markets. The thesis was founded on a number of factors. Low inflation and slowing but still positive growth had led the PBOC to significantly expansionary policy. This policy was widespread including Cutting the RRR. Cutting interest rates. Various
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Western Bailout vs Chinese Bailout
Wednesday, 19 August 2015 | 4:31 am
The west dealt with its financial crisis by basically swapping treasuries for non performing loans. It allowed a wholesale transfer of problem debt to the public (taxpayers) balance sheet, funded by the issue of government debt which only the Fed (and some hostage buyers like commercial banks subject to enhanced capitalization requirements) were willing to
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Ten Seconds Into The Future: Greece. China. Singapore. Other Stuff.
Friday, 14 August 2015 | 8:41 am
When markets rise, the media quickly approach bulls to interview and feature. When markets fall, they seek bears. In June, July this year all eyes were on Greece. Every bit of news about Greece was analyzed and scrutinized and markets reacted to these developments as if Greece was larger than the 2% it is of
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