China Equities. Fundamentals Positive. Valuations High In Places. IPO Activity Sapping the Market.
Friday, 26 June 2015 | 4:22 am
Long term positive China on reform and liquidity. Medium term volatility from valuations and IPO issuance. There are reasons to be optimistic about the Chinese economy in the long run due to structural reform. Current growth rates will slow but China is reorganizing itself to a more durable model. Political reform, notably the leaning
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Bondification. The Quest For Yield And The Turning Point.
Thursday, 25 June 2015 | 5:49 am
When we buy an equity or a bond we buy a claim on a business but with differing payoffs, rights and obligations. The rational investor would first decide if the business in question was something they wanted to own before deciding on whether to own it through the equity or the debt. If indeed the
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EUR: Perspective on daily volatility and market rationality
Wednesday, 24 June 2015 | 11:17 pm
The behavior of the EUR may have been confusing. If we look at the daily volatility since the Greek situation began its crescendo we have seen the EUR weaken on good news (of a deal) and strengthen when there was bad news (of no deal.) This is not so irrational. Notwithstanding any plan for retaining
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When Will The Fed Shrink Its Balance Sheet? In The Long Run The Fed's Balance Sheet Will Probably Grow.
Tuesday, 23 June 2015 | 9:26 am
Analgesics are addictive. Since interest rates were deployed to manage the economic cycle we have seen the Fed Funds Target Rate decline, making lower lows and lower highs (1980, 1984, 1989, 1995, 2000, 2007) as the Fed has been repeatedly enlisted in the bailout of asset markets and the economy. Now that a new policy tool has been invented
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Responsible Financial Behavior Punished. Rich Bounce Back as Poor Stagnate.
Monday, 22 June 2015 | 7:15 am
If you were careful, responsible and diligent and didn’t overextend yourself buying that big apartment in the prime central area and the second apartment to rent out, but maintained a reasonable debt to income and debt to equity ratio, you did OK but you certainly didn’t do as well as the guy who bought bigger
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