HEDGED.BIZ

A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

China In Transition. Outlook for the Chinese Economy.

Despite strong economic growth, Chinese equities have been derating over the past few years. There are technical reasons for the underperformance, mostly due to regulation and the nature of the investor base, which are mostly domestic retail investors.  Still, this does not explain the cheap valuations in offshore listings of Chinese companies. The current structure
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Ten Seconds Into The Future… A Quick Take on Market and Economic Outlook

The world is witnessing renewed economic strength. Generally, fundamentals are strong(er), especially in the developed markets. Policy, however, remains nervous and uncertain and drives financial market volatility. Equities in the performing markets seem fully priced. Credit continues to perform in the face of potentially higher interest rates. What can we make of all this? Let’s
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Why the Fed is Issuing Floating Rate Notes. Floating Rate Strategy.

Treasury is reducing issuance of T bills. At the same time they are starting issuance of 2 – 3 year FRNs. Why? There is a strong consensus among investors that rates will rise and therefore they should reduce duration. As a result they are buying shorter and shorter maturities. This trend is hurting Treasury’s ability
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Its Time To Wean the Economy Off QE.

With consistent central bank asset purchases, the term structure of interest rates cannot find its natural market clearing level. It is difficult to know if asset bubbles are being inflated or not, and it is hard to tell if the economy is yet on a self sustaining growth path. The only way to tell, to
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A few questions

  Our system of politics and economics is very much a product of history, so much so that some basic questions about fairness and efficiency remain unresolved.   Why is income taxed more vigorously than capital gains? Why are the gains from gambling not taxed more aggressively?   In a meritocracy, what is to be
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