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Investment Outlook for 4Q2012

Note that the US economy had begun its recovery in October 2011. Stage 1 of the recovery came from exports. Countries that benefited were not the natural exporters like China and Japan but rather anyone exporting to emerging markets, since they were the only importers with any ability to pay. Now even this game appears
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Friday Pearls of Folly 28 Sep 2012

Happy Friday
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Hedge Funds Ever More Relevant Today

Hedge funds are now more useful than ever now that many investors have given up on them.
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A Potentially Missed Opportunity. Southern Europe Has Bought UK and Germany Time. Will It Be Well Spent?

For the US, UK and Germany, a small window remains to raise long term debt. Take the UK for example. They need to issue 30 year debt in quantities sufficient to remove refinancing risk for the next 5 yrs, and then cut tax rates.
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QE Is Only Debt Reorganization. Where Is The Business Restructuring?

I’d like to understand the causality between lower MBS yields and unemployment. I’m sure there is a correlation, but I’m not sure that the dependence is so high.
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