HEDGED.BIZ

A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

Bloody Unlikely

Stuff that’s least expected to happen:
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Weak Euro Ahead

The Euro must fall. If the Euro is to be saved, and if there is not to be some messy bank default with a side order of contagion, the ECB will be engaged in debt monetization very soon.
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The Euro: No Economic Rationale for a Common Currency

  There is no economic rationale for Europe having a common currency. The USD works in the US because there is a common treasury on top of the state governments and Federal taxes and benefits unite the US. Also, labor mobility is high, and the national identity is at least as strong as the state
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Our Economy

The future is a wonderful place. Because you can borrow from it.
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A US Economic Recovery Is Shaping Up… But

I first looked for an export led recovery in the US in June in my article Investment Strategy: The New Macro. It was my view at the time that the US economy had been in recession for the last 12 months, despite a 2 year long liquidity and emerging market driven bull market in the
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