On September 21st there were two central bank meetings, the Fed and the Bank of Japan, both closely watched but both garnering very little expectations. The Fed was expected to do nothing and to signal a December rate hike, which it did. The market reaction was positive, not because this was unexpectedly good news but

One day in the future, the world has nearly depleted its resources. Natural resources have been over-mined, agricultural land over-farmed, the seas over-fished and over-farmed. A surge of population growth in the developing world has led to over-population and overcrowding in cities, while some areas face neglect and become under-populated. Parts of the world become

Inflection: From the rhetoric it is apparent that the Fed wants to raise rates, the question is not if, but when. The ECB’s recent inaction and signals point to a pause and a possible rethink about QE. The BoJ is currently assessing the efficacy of current QE and has already surprised the market by its

Monetary policy has likely reached the limits of usefulness, not necessarily the limits of efficacy. The efficacy of monetary policy was questionable in the first place. Multiple QE programs and low interest rates have managed to inflate assets but not to spur the economy as much as was hoped. Monetary policy is but one class

Observations: The BoJ’s discount rate, 9% in 1980 has fallen steadily to 0.3%. The 10 year JGB yield has dropped consistently from 8% in 1990 to -0.28%. The BoJ’s asset purchase programs have seen its balance sheet grow from 110 trillion JPY in 2010 to 436 trillion JPY expanding at 30% per annum. BoJ ownership