HEDGED.BIZ

A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

Hiring and Managing Investment Teams

Investment management is not just a job, its a craft. Practitioners of the craft are not just motivated by money but also by the autonomy they are afforded. You cannot influence the manager with carrot or stick. You might appeal to their professional respect as a fellow craft. Impose your will and they will either
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Semi Liquid and Evergreen Funds

Semi liquid funds have become a bit of a thing in the past few years. They serve a purpose. There are some drawbacks: There are more serious complications and risks: Semi liquid funds have grown in AUM from circa US$120 billion in 2020 to over US$600 billion in 2025. There is an interesting dynamic at
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Towards a theory for impact capital

The liberal democratic, free market economy has generated significant wealth for the world. However, it also appears to tend toward an unequal distribution of that wealth. One plausible reason lies in the unequal scalability of inputs to production. Labour is weakly scalable, capital more so, and intellectual capital close to limitlessly scalable. Ownership of capital
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Market Outlook 2026

Geopolitics: A belligerent US is a serious complication to the outlook. The objectives of the Trump administration are a bit unclear as their economic and social aims may not be compatible with current international norms. Conquest for the sake of conquest is a risk we have to entertain. Europe is in the crosshairs and much
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Ten Seconds Into The Future 2026

Some background. Notwithstanding our rhythms being regulated by the circuit of our planet around its star…   It has been a little over fifteen years since societies began to accept that win–win equilibria are not always attainable, and that reality more often resembles a constant-sum game. Four decades of credit-fuelled, leveraged growth came to an abrupt end
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