So S&P has downgraded a gaggle of European countries’ sovereign debt ratings. What a surprise. Ratings agencies are not always the last to know, but they are always and everywhere a tad slow.

  The ECB is printing money. It may not yet be directly purchasing sovereign bonds but it is acting as prime broker to the following hedge funds: commercial banks in Italy, Spain, France, Germany, etc etc. On Dec 14, 2011 it became clear what the ECB’s intentions were. Faced with political constraints and bureaucracy regarding

  There is a reason I call this Ten Seconds Into The Future. The chances of getting a forecast right on the economy are probably 50-60% if you’re good. The chances of translating that into a call on market direction are probably 45-55% if you’re good. So whenever I express an opinion, I’m setting myself

  So far most commentary about a possible break up of the Euro has focused on an instantaneous exit by a single country. Their expectation that it would inevitably be very damaging leading to extended bank holidays, highly probable defaults, bank runs, and capital flight are not incorrect. However, what they may have missed is that

  For the first time in its history the ECB is extending 3 year collateralized funding at 1% to European banks.