The behaviour of markets this year has confounded expectations. It is useful to step back and view the landscape from a high level as daily market monitoring can lead to myopia and inability to distinguish between noise and signal. It is also useful to avoid over reliance on established or sophisticated financial or economic models

Stuff that’s least expected to happen:

The Euro must fall. If the Euro is to be saved, and if there is not to be some messy bank default with a side order of contagion, the ECB will be engaged in debt monetization very soon.

  There is no economic rationale for Europe having a common currency. The USD works in the US because there is a common treasury on top of the state governments and Federal taxes and benefits unite the US. Also, labor mobility is high, and the national identity is at least as strong as the state

The future is a wonderful place. Because you can borrow from it.