HEDGED.BIZ

A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

Why I Think This Equity Market Rally Will Last

I rarely make predictions because I hate being wrong. But I shall make this prediction to help make my short positions profitable. Except that you can’t wash your car to make it rain. So here goes.  As long as there is serious skepticism about the fundamental underpinnings of the current equity market rally, as long
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Fundamental Investing In 2009: Will it work?

The innovation that was accused of being a New Paradigm in the late 1990’s in the wake of the Internet boom and subsequent bust brought amongst other things the concept of Just-In-Time management of inventory and production processes. This has introduced volatility into the cash flow and earnings generation of a large swathe of the
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Global Macro in 2009. Think again.

    In the recent investor surveys a number of hedge fund strategies stand out as strategies which investors expect will do well going forward and which they intend to increase their exposure to. Among these are distressed credit, global macro and CTAs. Of the three, distressed debt hedge funds had a poor 2008 whereas
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Retail Sales, PPI and Equity Markets

14 April. Retail sales numbers in the US disappointed. Retail sales less autos shrank 0.9% against a forecast of 0.0% and a prior of +0.7%. Advance retail sales were -1.1% versus a forecast +0.3% and a prior -0.1%. PPI numbers were also reported. PPI Ex Food and Energy rose 3.8% YOY versus a forecast 4.0%.
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Black Swans? Silkie Chickens!

Black Swans? Whatever you do, whatever they do, whoever they are, whoever you are, economic cycles will survive. See my article of 2 April 2008. The path of economic growth and the role of central planners. People learn from their mistakes. The next mistakes they make will be fiendishly novel and clever. If it is
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