HEDGED.BIZ

A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

Hedge Fund Investing In 2012

Forget about correlations. Here are the conditional probabilities between equity market monthly returns and hedge fund returns as represented by the MSCI World Equity Index and the HFRI Hedge Fund Index respectively.
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Why Invest In Funds? What Can They Do For Us?

In investing and trading, easy to identify strategies are rare. Asian convertible bonds in late 2008 are an example, the QE2 liquidity infused rally of 2010, the first LTRO rally, the rebound in RMBS in 2009, are others. The massive relief rally on early 2009 was harder to identify and caught most investors off guard.
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Investment Strategy In a Crazy World April 2012

The erratic path taken by macro economic data and by asset prices such as stocks, bonds, commodities etc are the confluence of long, medium and short term cycles. The long term cycle took a turn in 2008 and remains decidedly poor.
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Insane Markets and How To Think About Manager Selection

Insanity   The US credit rating gets downgraded and US treasuries rally.   The ECB shoots morphine into an insolvent European banking system and it is the banks that rally most.   China leads global economic growth and its stock market performs most poorly.   Europe is in a serious recession whereas the US is
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China Hard Landing. The Chinese Recession and the Threat to the US Economic Recovery

In Nov 2011 I warned that the Chinese economy was headed for a slump. This is an update. In the past quarter, manufacturing data has supported the view that the Chinese economy was decelerating rapidly.
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