Hello. I’m Burnham Banks and I studied economics in the late 80s and early 90s. I’m still studying economics today and am still no wiser. This blog is a journal, a record of my thoughts and experiences. If we are destined to repeat our mistakes, we should at least repeat them faithfully. If not, then perhaps the past is a mischievous guide and we should try something new.
Watching Equity Markets In Disbelief. How Expensive or Cheap Depends on Time Horizon.
Monday, 12 February 2018 | 8:31 am
We’ve spent nearly a year in disbelief watching equity markets rise against some pretty lofty valuations asking ourselves when the next correction would be and how far equities could keep rising. They rose beyond our most optimistic expectations. We are now watching in disbelief as equity markets fall against some pretty strong fundamentals of growth
- Published in Articles
No Comments
2018 Market Volatility. Where Do We Go From Here.
Friday, 09 February 2018 | 11:29 am
Recent market action Is there a fundamental weakness? Inflation QE dependency Market expectations over next 12 months Recent market action: I would never advise anyone to look at market movements on a daily basis. At these time frames what we observe is noise and not signal. With this caveat, let’s have a look at what
- Published in Articles
Why Is The USD So Weak?
Monday, 29 January 2018 | 11:40 am
The USD has been weak all 2017. In early 2018 its weakness has worsened acutely. With the US economy in good health and printing growth numbers like 2.6% annualized in Q4 2017 and with interest rates rising, its difficult to understand why the USD is weak. Some have attributed the weakness to the pre-emptive nature
- Published in Articles
2018 Investment Outlook. Inflation and Rates Pivotal.
Tuesday, 16 January 2018 | 2:17 pm
8 years of recovery We have now had 8 years of economic growth since the financial crisis, with a little turbulence along the way, the European banking crisis 2011/2012, Taper Tantrum 2013, the China stock bubble in 2015. China has clearly matured and growth rates decelerated as one would expect from an economy of its
- Published in Articles
8 years of caution and trepidation and we got a raging bull market. What will optimism bring? 2018
Monday, 08 January 2018 | 8:35 am
We have Italian elections in early March. The Germans still haven’t formed a government, and the AfD have 13% (the fictional TV series Berlin Station predicted a 13% vote for the fictional analogue PfD). All the data is good and synchronized. It really can’t get any better than this. Investors are more bullish than at
- Published in Articles