Hello. I’m Burnham Banks and I studied economics in the late 80s and early 90s. I’m still studying economics today and am still no wiser. This blog is a journal, a record of my thoughts and experiences. If we are destined to repeat our mistakes, we should at least repeat them faithfully. If not, then perhaps the past is a mischievous guide and we should try something new.
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Central Banks and The Things They Get Up To

Analgesics are addictive. The US Federal Reserve has cut rates to address every downturn but sows the seeds of subsequent downturns so it can never quite normalize rates before the next crisis occurs. Analgesics are very addictive. Before 2008, the Fed used interest rates to manage the speed of the economy. It has now discovered
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ECB meeting 7 September 2017, what to expect:

In late June at the ECB Forum in Sintra, the ECB Chairman Mario Draghi remarked that “all the signs now point to a strengthening and broadening recovery in the euro area.” The market took this as a sign of the impending end to QE and the EUR began a rally from 112 to 119 and
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Why inflation is low and central banks are confused and what can be done about it.

For central banks the world over, inflation is too low, apparently. Continued efforts to reflate economies have led to some growth and employment but have not had much impact on inflation. As asset markets make new highs and valuations get more stretched, labour markets become tighter and growth stabilizes, central banks are at a loss
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Dumb Forecast For S&P500 Returns

Let us say that you have made 16% per annum for the past 2 years investing in the S&P500. As at this point, you have. What is the return you would have to make over the next 2 years so that your 4 year average return was equal to the long term potential return of
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US Debt Ceiling 2017. Mexican Stand-off Between Republicans Everywhere.

The best thing investors can do about the US debt ceiling issue is to talk about it and do nothing. In 2011, a Democrat White House and a Republican Congress had a similar debate about the debt ceiling. The Obama administration argued that failure to raise the debt ceiling would result in a sovereign default
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