Where we are: Where are we headed? What does this imply? Navigating markets: Some themes will play out over decades. However, they are path dependent and initial or near term conditions will impact trajectories. Artificial intelligence. The quest for AGI is unlikely to be successful, however, tangential development will be sufficient to drive a lot

In times of unruly markets, even long short, hedged or market neutral portfolios can behave in unexpected ways. This may be because of factor biases or technical reasons. Factor biases are the most obvious reason for unexpected behaviour. If you’re net long or short a sector, size, valuation, country, or cyclical v defensive factor, your

The US economy a year ago was experiencing strong growth from the momentum of a fiscal impulse as well as expectations of rate cuts, of which we got 3 beginning in July. Did the US economy need rate cuts? Probably not on the strength of coincident data at the time. But from the perspective of

It is now time for the world to generally cut tariffs in response to America raising tariffs. Tariffs are analogous to punishing one’s kids for preferring the neighbour’s cooking. The tariff nation’s population pays. Tariffs are the cost of accessing the US consumer. The world has been too reliant on the US consumer. Time to

America seeks a new world order based on areas of influence. It has no time, interest or resources to deal with the Asian and European timezones. It seeks a pragmatic solution to the political and economic problems in those timezones. America’s area of influence is geographically defined and is latitudinally expansionist. The Asian timezone will