In the immediate months following the COVID shock in 2Q 2020, Fed and market had expected inflation to be transitory, basically rising from 2% to 4% and fading back to 2%. This proved to be wrong. I had expected a peak of 6-8% fading to 3-4%. From June 2020, we shorted treasuries to hedge all

Data is pretty topical these days. Everybody, including I’m sure, some automata, are talking about big data and AI. I wanted to make a couple of very general observations. If you have a lot of data but they all look the same, or are pretty close to each other, then the information the data contain

Ukraine needs to invade Poland at once. And subsequently surrender. This will make Ukraine a part of Poland and thus NATO.

Long horizon   The COVID crisis has been with us for about 2 years now. It is but the most recent in a random distribution of crises that punctuate our history. Generally, life progresses until it is interrupted by biological, environmental, or political crises, which end when the number of hosts, inhabitants or combatants is

Perhaps history is inevitably punctuated by crises. Life naturally grows until interrupted by environmental, social or political crises when the number of hosts, inhabitants or combatants is decimated, halting the crisis, and setting the stage for a potential but by no means guaranteed recovery. There is an optimal population size below which collaboration leads to