Even assuming one had lots of cash to invest, its not easy. Liquid markets like equities and bonds are volatile and sentiment driven. There may be a quick recovery or another leg to the crisis. A more tractable approach is to seek structural instabilities. We seek opportunities in the shadow banking system, especially those parts

Contagion At the time of writing, the COVID 19 pandemic is well underway. At the end of January, there were almost 12 thousand cases, mostly in China. Now, just two months later, there are over 150 thousand cases, with the highest growth rates outside China. After China, Europe has become the new focus of contagion.

It is becoming evident that if not the virus, the response to it, will cause recession. Fighting the virus is the responsibility of health authorities, not central banks and treasuries. Treasuries can help financially of course. Central banks and treasuries should concentrate on mitigating the economic costs of the virus and our containment measures. There

In mid-January we noted the following: Valuations were high. Equity multiples were high, credit spreads were tight and real estate cap rates were low. Whatever it was an investor considered buying, large numbers of investors had already bid prices up and were squatting on large quantities of inventory. Economic growth was slowing. The global trade

Note. This is an incompletely developed train of thought. The path to artificial (general) intelligence will involve the entire human race. The achievement of AGI could be as mysterious as the distinction between the brain and mind. When AGI is attained it will be the sum of all of us, participating in its evolution and