HEDGED.BIZ

A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

Finance. A Misallocation of Resources?

Hard data is scarce and noisy but according to estimates by the World Bank and OECD, the financial sector accounts for 20-30% of GDP in developed countries. The IMF estimates that total global nominal GDP is some 77.6 trillion dollars of which financial services account for 13.1 trillion dollars or 16%. What services does the
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Trump Kim Summit in Singapore. China The Big Winner.

On 12 Jun 2018, US President Donald Trump met with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore in what was hailed as a historic meeting. The document the two leaders signed state the following: The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new US-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples
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The US Labour Market is Tight. Participation Rates Explained.

Average hourly earnings are growing at 2.7% YOY, well below the 3.6% growth rates seen pre crisis 2008. The unemployment rate has fallen steadily from 10% during the crisis to 3.8%. The JOLTS Quits Rate (which measures voluntary quits, presumably in search of better prospects) has risen steadily since 2009 to 2.3%, near its post
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Malaysia Election 2018. A Historic Opportunity.

On 9 May 2018, the Malaysian general election saw an unexpected win for the opposition Pakatan Harapan coalition against the Barisan Nasional juggernaut despite extensive gerrymandering. Malaysians ended UMNO’s 61 years of rule, albeit with the efforts of UMNO alumni, ex PM Mahathir Mohammed, ex Deputy PM (and ex political convict) Anwar Ibrahim, and a few UMNO defectors
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The ECB is in a difficult position.

The European economy has long been bogged down with structural impediments and the challenges of a partially unified single market. Yet in 2017, the European economy experienced a significant pick up. PMIs surged and GDP growth recovered to levels before the 2011 European crisis. Some of the strength has come from a rebound in international
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