HEDGED.BIZ

A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

Courage. Hubris. Greed. Fear. Denial. Despair. Repeat.

  Fundamentals give us the courage to place our bets. Gains give us the hubris to up the ante. Greed blinds us when fundamentals deteriorate. Denial paralyzes us when gains are lost. Fear grips us as losses mount. In despair we sell the good with the bad. And turn our backs when the storm passes.
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Watching Equity Markets In Disbelief. How Expensive or Cheap Depends on Time Horizon.

We’ve spent nearly a year in disbelief watching equity markets rise against some pretty lofty valuations asking ourselves when the next correction would be and how far equities could keep rising. They rose beyond our most optimistic expectations. We are now watching in disbelief as equity markets fall against some pretty strong fundamentals of growth
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2018 Market Volatility. Where Do We Go From Here.

Recent market action Is there a fundamental weakness? Inflation QE dependency Market expectations over next 12 months Recent market action: I would never advise anyone to look at market movements on a daily basis. At these time frames what we observe is noise and not signal. With this caveat, let’s have a look at what
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Why Is The USD So Weak?

The USD has been weak all 2017. In early 2018 its weakness has worsened acutely. With the US economy in good health and printing growth numbers like 2.6% annualized in Q4 2017 and with interest rates rising, its difficult to understand why the USD is weak. Some have attributed the weakness to the pre-emptive nature
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2018 Investment Outlook. Inflation and Rates Pivotal.

8 years of recovery We have now had 8 years of economic growth since the financial crisis, with a little turbulence along the way, the European banking crisis 2011/2012, Taper Tantrum 2013, the China stock bubble in 2015. China has clearly matured and growth rates decelerated as one would expect from an economy of its
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