HEDGED.BIZ

A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

Global Trade War. Episode II

The Trade War continues. Since 2011, the Obama administration has been actively pursuing a program of reshoring. http://agmetalminer.com/2015/01/22/obamas-manufacturing-centric-state-of-the-union-youll-never-hear/ Donald Trump’s agenda only seeks to bolster or exacerbate an existing trend. As global growth slows, every country seeks to become more self-sufficient and insular. Trading nations and those with a small or ageing population do not
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Central Banks and The Things They Get Up To

Analgesics are addictive. The US Federal Reserve has cut rates to address every downturn but sows the seeds of subsequent downturns so it can never quite normalize rates before the next crisis occurs. Analgesics are very addictive. Before 2008, the Fed used interest rates to manage the speed of the economy. It has now discovered
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ECB meeting 7 September 2017, what to expect:

In late June at the ECB Forum in Sintra, the ECB Chairman Mario Draghi remarked that “all the signs now point to a strengthening and broadening recovery in the euro area.” The market took this as a sign of the impending end to QE and the EUR began a rally from 112 to 119 and
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Why inflation is low and central banks are confused and what can be done about it.

For central banks the world over, inflation is too low, apparently. Continued efforts to reflate economies have led to some growth and employment but have not had much impact on inflation. As asset markets make new highs and valuations get more stretched, labour markets become tighter and growth stabilizes, central banks are at a loss
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Dumb Forecast For S&P500 Returns

Let us say that you have made 16% per annum for the past 2 years investing in the S&P500. As at this point, you have. What is the return you would have to make over the next 2 years so that your 4 year average return was equal to the long term potential return of
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