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A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

Why The Slowdown in Q1 Economic Growth?

The following is a chart of the Average Yield for US Corporate Bonds. The period of early 2015 indicated by the white line coincides with a slowdown in US manufacturing PMIs. * chart data source Bloomberg Since mid June 2016 we have seen corporate bond yields rising as a result of rising US treasury yields, reflecting
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Growth Rebound Within The Limits of Trade War

From 2004 till 2008, US manufacturing (as measured by the NAPM PMI) has been weak, before diving in 2008. Since then it has rebounded and fallen into a range of 50 – 57, steady if not robust expansion. In China, manufacturing was flourishing pre 2008, after which it declined steadily from over 55 to below
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UK Snap Election 2017. Questions Arising. Hard or Soft Brexit.

Every time a politician says that an election is not a game, there is a clear risk that democracy takes a step back. So on April 8, when Theresa May called a snap UK election for June 8, and said that it was not a game, one should be concerned. But this is not the
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China Versus America. Make Stuff Not War.

China builds bridges while America builds walls. Both strategies are individually compatible. The danger arises when experts appraise each country’s strengths and weaknesses in the context of conflict thus precipitating the need for each to prove themselves in contests neither desire.  This is perhaps too optimistic a view of human nature. Apparently the ascendancy of one power is
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VIX. Volatility Low. Buy Some While Stocks Last.

Volatility is one of those quantities which has a very distinctive time series. If you are shown a volatility chart which was flipped upside down, you would immediately recognize the error. Volatility spikes and fades and repeats. When is the next spike? How big a spike is one looking for. The foregoing is just observation
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