HEDGED.BIZ

A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

Purpose

Chance, or nature itself, scattered the planet’s gifts with casual generosity. Rivers, minerals, fertile soils and shifting climates were spread unevenly, inviting humanity to share and trade. Yet fear often drove communities to seek safety in self-sufficiency, and strength through expansion, and cooperation gave way to conquest. An unscripted experiment evolved according to human anxieties
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AI, Entropy, and the Order of Knowledge

Artificial intelligence will greatly enhance efficiency. It operates with speed and scale beyond human capacity, applying computational brute force to problems that would otherwise take eons to resolve. By running trillions of simulations and mapping vast outcome spaces, AI can assign probabilities and correlations with an objectivity and endurance that human cognition cannot match. From
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Impact Investing and Family Offices

The global investment industry has between US$200-300 trillion in assets. Impact investment has about US$1.5 trillion in assets, some 0.75% of total market. This is consistent with estimates of philanthropic capital of some US$ 1-2 trillion. Family offices have about 1-3% of the global market and about 4% of the impact market. Most of our
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How did we get here? Where do we go from here?

A hundred years of capitalism has brought us here. What is here? What capitalism and liberal democracy were supposed to do for us. Side effects. Fragilities Inequality can be tolerated until or unless: Interest rates can remain low until or unless: Sovereign bond markets can remain well behaved until and unless: Where do we go
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A Hundred Years of Capitalism: Fragile Prosperity

Over the past century, capitalism and liberal democracy have defined the global economic and political order. Together, they promised efficiency, prosperity, and freedom. They were expected to reinforce one another: capitalism would drive growth, and growth would nurture democracy. For much of the twentieth century, this vision seemed to hold. Yet today we find ourselves
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