HEDGED.BIZ

A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

Energy.

With the current focus on climate change and resource sustainability its interesting to think more deeply about the sources and uses of energy on earth. Fossil fuels. Fossil fuels represent 85% of global energy generation. General opinion is shifting towards the view that fossil fuels are unsustainable because, a) there is a finite endowment which
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ESG Investing Is Hard To Do.

I had discussed ESG in this previous article entitled: ESG: Externalities Unpriced, in an attempt to encourage a more rigorous analysis of ESG, arguing that ESG leads to better investment results due to a more comprehensive understanding of the factors surrounding a business so that these factors can be integrated into both risk mitigation as
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2020 Investment Strategy. Generally Cautious.

Reduce equity exposure. Equity markets have outpaced fundamentals recently. In any reversion to mean, equities will perform in line with fundamentals which suggests a much more moderate performance in 2020. On that basis alone, investors should reduce equity exposure. By how much? In a balanced portfolio with 35% in equities and 65% in fixed income,
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Gold. Political Risk Hedge. The Schadenfreude Trade.

The case for gold has never been stronger with the rise in geopolitical risk since 2016. Since 2000, the price of gold has risen sharply, at an annualized rate of nearly 14%, only to peak in 2012 before losing 40% in 3 years for an annualized rate of -7.4%. Since then it has risen erratically
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10 Seconds Into 2020. Geopolitics and US Elections.

Welcome to a long rambling piece about the economic and market outlook. There is a lot to think about but in the end, if all you are interested in is the direction of the financial markets, go to the end of the article on US Elections and Trump. Geopolitics. A key driver of economics and
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